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Abstract

Recent record-hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade.

Beware the “surprise” record high being blamed on an extreme El Nino on top of global warming otherwise consistent with IPCC estimates. Instead, record warmth provides additional evidence of high climate sensitivity and increased net climate forcing in the past decade.

If you bear with our discussion to the end, you will find some possible good news.

The 2026 global SST surpasses the 2024 global SST by mid-June; thus, given the lag, 2024 might remain warmer than 2026 in July, but the final five months of the year should have 2026 as warmer than 2024. We expect the gap in the stretch run (November, December) to be so large as to (unfortunately) make 2026 the hottest year – until 2027, which will be even hotter.

There are reasons to hope that the warming rate might slow down. [...] O.K., so we were grasping for straws. We didn’t really have good news. If we want the accelerated warming to slow down, we must get Earth’s energy imbalance (lower panel of Fig. 6) to decrease. That means the world needs to get serious about reducing the humanmade climate forcing, and the world has not got very serious yet. Sorry, we will keep searching for some good news in our planet’s data.

Not doomer porn. But this audience may be interested in this.

Back in the day a group of people decided to capture the stories and wisdom of the Appalachian Mountains. The results was a series of books that make for some good reading. It was never intended as collapse lit. But it shows how things use to be done so you might be interested. All the books should be available in the library systems.

https://www.foxfire.org/.

Here are some other links you may be interested in. Lehmans is a big supplier to the amish.

https://www.notechmagazine.com/
https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/
https://www.lehmans.com/
https://products.bigfrogmountain.com/shop/home.php
https://www.backwoodshome.com/
https://thebackwoodsman.com/

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome shows how acute thermal stress challenges prevailing assumptions about ecological resilience and adaptation. Extreme heat events are revealing physiological limits in forests that are not captured by conventional climate risk frameworks.

Abstract

Wildfire activity has increased in the USA and is projected to accelerate under future climate change1,2,3. However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke and health outcomes remains highly uncertain because of the difficulty of modelling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the USA due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under climate change. We construct an ensemble of statistical and machine learning models that link climate to wildfire smoke PM2.5 and empirically estimate smoke PM2.5–mortality relationships using data on all recorded deaths in the USA. We project that smoke PM2.5 could result in 71,420 excess deaths (95% confidence interval: 34,930–98,430) per year by 2050 under a high-warming scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3-7.0, SSP3-7.0)—a 73% increase relative to the estimated 2011–2020 average annual excess deaths from smoke. Cumulative excess deaths from smoke PM2.5 could reach 1.9 million between 2026 and 2055. We find evidence for mortality impacts of smoke PM2.5 that last up to 3 years after exposure. When monetized, climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the USA4,5. Our research suggests that the health impacts of climate-driven wildfire smoke could be among the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the USA.