this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2023
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Wright's Law applies to solar panels, wind turbines, and more. Basically, as production capacity increases, the cost of production decreases by approximately the ratio of 18% for each doubling of production capacity. This equation will continue to drive the total energy production capacity up while driving energy costs down. With abundant cheap energy, we will keep finding things to use it for.
On an individual level, this looks like: you installed LEDs, so now you have budget available to run the giant TV.
Basically, even though we become more efficient in our daily lives with regard to energy use as individuals, the more energy we produce and use as a civilization. Cheap energy enables progress. Yes, the CPU in your cell phone is very energy efficient, but the energy it took to manufacture it isn't included in your calculations. The more advanced our stuff becomes, the more energy it takes to make it, and run civilization itself.
There is very little you can do as an individual to change the trajectory of global energy production and consumption, but we can at least try to choose better energy sources. The only thing we can do as a civilization in the very long term would be to move production off planet. Or, you know, revert to a stone age civilization where everyone ceases to exist.
I think there's a lot of currently unknown factors involved, for a lot of things we'll reach a point where the technology is evolved to a point much more efficient than current solutions. It's possible as well that these systems will make effective use of small cycles so we're only having to put very small amounts of extra energy into it to maintain the cycle.
Automated construction tools could for example make it very cheap to install grey water systems and water filtration which greatly reduce the demand on our current supply and sewer systems. Likewise with TV, we currently have big screens but a small headband that interacts with the optic nerve or brain might be far more efficient. If most houses can generate the power they need locally then huge parts of the electrical grid could be removed which would save huge amounts of power.
I think we'll always want to do big projects and use more power for science and community growth but hopefully a lot of that can be done in space or areas that are especially well suited such as deserts or floating platforms in the ocean where room and power are cheap.