Activists from around the country told The Intercept that they will advocate for an anti-war agenda at the convention in August and withhold their vote in November unless an adequate candidate steps up, listing policy priorities such as support for a permanent ceasefire and standing up to the pro-Israel lobby as it intervenes in Democratic primaries. Even as the Biden campaign insists that he will not step aside, many Democrats appear to be lining up behind Vice President Kamala Harris as an alternative candidate, with some Democratic governors being floated as well.
“My number one criteria for any candidate is opposing the genocide in Gaza,” said Saad Farooq, an uncommitted voter in Massachusetts. Farooq said it was unlikely that the Democratic National Committee would select any candidate who took a stance against Israel’s ongoing war, and that he would support Green Party candidate Jill Stein if she were to appear on the ballot in Massachusetts.
Will Dawson, an uncommitted voter in Washington, D.C., named several factors that could get him to switch his vote from the Green Party’s Stein to another politician. First on his list is a promise to call for an immediate ceasefire and fighting the influence of the pro-Israel lobby and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Congress.
“This candidate would also ideally work toward pulling further away from the Israeli colonial project over time, with the goal being repealing our absurd financial support, ending the foreign interest agency of AIPAC, and pushing for a nation-wide boycott a la [South Africa] during their apartheid,” Dawson wrote.
The candidate would also have to push to reform the Supreme Court, he added. “The candidate would have to promise to both push for justice impeachment, and expand the courts,” Dawson said.“If a replacement candidate met both of these requirements, I would absolutely consider switching my vote from Jill Stein. Hell, I might even knock doors/canvass for them!”
That's a reasonable take and I appreciate you taking the time to share. I can see your point that increasing the uncertainty means that the new DNC candidate has an opportunity to pick up a larger share once the unsure voters pick. This seems like a sort of mutated version of the gamblers fallacy to me.
Having a larger uncertainty pool doesn't really provide any advantage for Democrats. While theres opportunity for the DNC candidate to pick up votes from this pool of voters there's also opportunity for Trump to pick up votes once they know more about the other candidates.
Without more information the most likely outcome is Trump picks up about 51.5% of undecided voters and the other candidate picks up about 48.5%. If we know why these voters are unsure then we can make a more educated guess about how they might vote for each candidate and we might be able to say the DNC candidate will pick up the required votes.
Unfortunately we don't know why they're unsure so saying that the best thing Biden can do is drop out just isn't supported by the information available.
On a personal note I think Biden should announce he's old and tired and just doesn't have 4 more years of being president in him. After that drop out of the campaign, endorse another candidate, and announce a clear plan for how the DNC is going to actually select the next candidate.
If he doesn't make it extremely clear that dropping out his decision, or there's no clear and transparant plan on how the next candidate will be selected, then it's going to start a civil war in the DNC that will hand the presidency to Trump.