Polls don't mean shit, go vote
this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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Yeah, the polls had Hillary winning easily in 2016. Don't trust them.
They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win. If you predict 90% chance that something will happen, and it always happens, your prediction is wrong because you should have predicted 100%.
When I hear someone say "you can't trust the polls because they got 2016 'wrong'" they are just telling me they don't understand statistics.
They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win
And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.
And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.
I'm not sure this is entirely true. Many polls just look at the popular vote, but most of the polls that claim "chance of winning" take into account the EC.
538 had her going into the election with a 70% chance of winning the electoral college. Nate Silver also went on multiple shows basically doing everything he could to get people to understand that meant 3 out of 10 times she loses.
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It's been awhile since I read anything about that, but it seems like the last time I read about it, was something along: "80% of polls have Hillary projected to win", but the actual polls that they were using were all almost within the margin of error.
tl;dr 80% had Hillary winning by about 2-3%.
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Amazing what a stellar State of the Union can do, but as always... national polls are useless because we don't have national elections.
Watch the polling in the key swing states. So far, it doesn't appear that new polling has been done since the State of the Union.
These are the states we want to see swing Biden.
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Nevada:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
North Carolina:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Virginia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Didn't 538 recently ditch a right-wing poll that was skewing their polling data?
Rasmussen and it's been a long time coming.
Oh, they ditched Rasmussen? Makes sense. Leading up to 2020, I think they were showing Trump up by something like 5-8 points - my memory is fuzzy.
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Yeah. Article is bragging about 3 national polls, where Biden is winning by 3% at most...
Because of the system, Dems need popular vote, to make up for the flyover states going conservative and be worth more due to electoral college
If Biden was polling 5% over trump nationally, we should be concerned.
And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe's campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.
And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe's campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.
Why? They've done it once already.
And then there's 2016...
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Probably the most relevant line in the entire article:
a series of polls have suggested Biden will narrowly beat Trump in the November vote. But with eight months to go, and the polls so tight, this could change and a number of polls have also indicated that Trump will win the election.
Whether Biden wins or loses is going to come down to how well he engages people in key states. Outside of the "blue no matter who" crowd, people have decidedly mixed feelings about voting for a candidate whose strongest argument is that he isn't Trump. Everything from events in the weeks leading up to the election to the weather (which affects Dems more than Reps) will matter, so rather than leaning on polls that suggest a victory... it might be wise to end those behaviors and policies that have human rights advocates concerned.
I don't get this point. I feel like Biden's done a great job as president so far. He's had a lot of tough issues to deal with as president and so far he's handled everything really well.
it might be wise to end those behaviors and policies that have human rights advocates concerned.
I don’t get this point.
Don't play stupid; you know exactly what the grandparent commenter is talking about.
I understand that it was about the Israel/Hamas conflict. And I understand that many people disagree with the US supporting Israel and the way things have played out so far in Gaza. I wish the US would not get involved in conflicts in that region, but to me a single international policy isn't enough to negate all of the good that I feel Biden has done during his presidency. I also believe that any Israelis that have committed war crimes should be held accountable.
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He's done an OK job for a run of the mill president during run of the mill times, but in my opinion he has failed to rise to the big threats of today, especially RAPIDLY encroaching fascism, climate change, and nearly catastrophic wealth inequality.
So our choice is between run-of-the-mill president or a guy who says he wants to a dictator, violently tried to overturn the last election, had fake electors etc. etc.
I'm not excited about Biden but the choice seems to be pretty straightforward and I'll be SURE to get to the polls.
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Most underrated President of all time. (Best president of my time at least).
I will donate the closer it gets and to the key races.
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It's going to depend on the severity of several pending scandals and what the Saudis decide to do with oil prices between now and November. Democrats should have an astronomical campaign warchest while the GOP is blowing their wad on the candidate's legal bills. The Democrats game to lose and that's their expertise.
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Amazing what happens when Democrats try even slightly.
What's the point in starting your campaign early when it's just a rehash of the last one? The only reason trump started campaigning so early is to stay out of jail. Biden doesn't need to spend money now when the impact will be far greater the farther into the race we get.
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The fact things are this close is amazingly disappointing in humanity as a whole.
On the one side, you have Trump who wants to be a dictator, actively hates anyone who isn't white and conervative, said he wants to kill his political opponents, tried to overthrow the government, had a 4 year presidency that was basically an episode of Jersey Shore everyday, and idolizes Putin/Hitler/etc.
And then there is Biden, who isn't super "exciting", old AF, and supports Israel too much for political reasons, but otherwise has done an alright job as president for 4 years.
How are the polls and the race even remotely this close? It's no wonder we can't do something like fix climate change as a society when people are this fracking stupid.
as a society when people are this fracking stupid.
Remember all those times when a certain party cut back spending on education? That's how we get to where we are today.
It wasn't just the judges that were part of a long-term plan.
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I plan to vote for Biden.
I do not plan on telling any polls that. If Biden polls too well, I'm convinced voters will be complacent and risk not voting.
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Remember that the 2024 election will boil down the WI, MI, PA, GA and AZ. Whichever candidate wins 3 of those 5 states (minimum) will win the election. It's mathematically impossible to get to 270 otherwise.
I'm still voting for Biden in a red state. We used to be more purple and really still are if looking just at the popular vote. He lost here by 500k votes in 2020 but it's very possible these narratives being pushed about swing states affect turnout more than we give credit for. We're lucky to get 50% turnout of registered voters in presidential elections. Local elections are more like 25% if we're being generous, and those are more important.
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Boots on the ground here... GA isn't looking good.
GA comes down to the Black vote and Black voter turnout. And Black Georgians are making Biden work for their vote right now. Understandably so.
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Do not believe polls. Vote regardless. Democracy prevails only if we vote in great numbers.
This is going to make Republicans seethe and will remind them of the mail-in ballots. I'm sure there will be talk of fakery, no matter who collected the data.
Trump ahead: of course! Biden ahead: FAKE NEWS
Most people don't understand probability, they must never have spent any time grinding low % drop rates. Things that have a 28.6% chance are not mind-blowing when they happen.
But, nonetheless it's a very good reminder that hopefully people will learn from. But people en masse learning a lesson beyond a single 4 year period, let alone two, well now that would be mind-blowing.
Who still listens to polls, they seem to be wrong more than they're right!
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