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this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2026
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I hope from bottom of my heart that Ukraine is able to push back and gain pre 2014 borders! Unfortunately I don't see Russians giving Crimea up even if it becomes logistical hell. I hope Ukraine proves me wrong!
Russia will not have a choice.
It does not matter how russia feels about it, when you have been cut off in a combined arms operation that shatters your backline and logistics supply lines, the only choices left are to surrender or die like a fish in a barrel with no hope of escape. Those are your choices.
That is why maneuver warfare works, cutting off an enemy from their supply lines and suppressing them thoroughly from the air and with artillery creates the conditions where large amounts of enemy forces are forced to surrender without having to do battle with each and every enemy soldier.
It is something that always happens faster and more decisively than you expect it to, it is like glass shattering. You won't be able to see the possibility of it as anything other than a unified impervious system until it has already been shattered.
I fear the problem is that Ukraine can't of course cut all of the supply lines without actually gaining all the land around crimea and still some supplies would get through. And as human cost is no coat in russia, they don't care what kind of hell Crimea would be. In WW2 Sevastopol was under actual siege and it held 2-3 years if I remember correctly.
My understanding is still that Ukraine haven't done bigger mobilization so I don't know if they have mon power to do actuall ground attack even against much weaker troops? Manoeuvring war has largelly stopped because of drones, Ukraine would need to still push through heavily fortified area, which for sure is mined and under constant drone thread. It is not easy task, but as I said, I hope Ukraine proves everyone wrong here!