this post was submitted on 13 May 2024
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With the worth, that's an interesting way to look at it.
I don't think you grasped how exponential growth works. And the opposite: logarithmic growth. It means at first it grows fast. And then slower and slower. If it's logarithmic, it means at first you double the computing power and you get a big return... Quadruple the performance or even more... But it'll get less quickly. At some point you're like in your example, connecting 4 really big supercomputers, and you just get a measly 1% performance gain over one supercomputer. And then you have to invest trillions of dollars for the next 0.5%. That'd be logarithmic growth. We're not sure where on the curve we currently are. We've sure seen the fast growth in the last months.
And scientists don't really do forecasts. They make hypotheses and then they test them. And they experimentally justify it. So no, it's not the future being guessed at. They used a clever method to measure the performance of a technological system. And we can see those real-world measurements in their paper. Why do you say the top researchers in the world aren't "well-enough informed" individuals?