this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2024
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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It's not so much about the doomers being sure that AGI will lead to human extinction (or worse) The point is that even if the chances of it are extremely slim, the consequences can be worse than we're even capable of imagining. The question is: do we really want to take that chance?
It's kind of like with the trinity nuclear test. Scientists were almost 100% confident that it wont cause a chain reaction that sets the entire atmosphere on fire but when we're speaking about the future of the entire humanity I don't blame people for arguing that almost 100% certainty is not good enough.
Why when we look into the stars do we not see a sign of life anywhere else? Has life not emerged yet or has it wiped itself out? With what? Nukes? AI? Synthetic viruses made with AI? Who knows..
Personally I think that stopping AI recearch is not an option. It's just not going to happen. The asteroid is already hurtling towards earth and most people don't seem to experience any sort of urgency due to it. Do we not need to worry about it yet if the time of impact is 30 years from now?
EDIT: Alright, well this community was a mistake..
the chances are zero. i don't buy into the idea that the "probability" of some made-up cataclysmic event is worth thinking about as any other number because technically you can't guarantee that a unicorn won't fart AGI into existence which in turn starts converting our bodies into office equipment
if you had done just a little bit of googling instead of repeating something you heard off of Oppenheimer, you would know this was basically never put forward as serious possibility (archive link)
which is actually a fitting parallel for "AGI", now that i think about it
if you're going to walk in here and diarrhea AGI Great Filter sci-fi nonsense onto the floor, don't be surprised if no one decides to take you seriously
...okay it's bad form but i had to peek at your bio
seriously do all y'all like. come out of a factory or something