Technology

I think I've heard about enough of experts predicting the future lately.

Marcus is right, incremental improvements in AIs like ChatGPT will not lead to AGI and were never on that course to begin with. What LLMs do is fundamentally not "intelligence", they just imitate human response based on existing human-generated content. This can produce usable results, but not because the LLM has any understanding of the question. Since the current AI surge is based almost entirely on LLMs, the delusion that the industry will soon achieve AGI is doomed to fall apart - but not until a lot of smart speculators have gotten in and out and made a pile of money.

Because nobody could have possibly saw that coming. /s

is this where we get to explain again why its not really ai?

Good. I look forward to all these idiots finally accepting that they drastically misunderstood what LLMs actually are and are not. I know their idiotic brains are only able to understand simple concepts like "line must go up" and follow them like religious tenants though so I'm sure they'll waste everyone's time and increase enshitification with some other new bullshit once they quietly remove their broken (and unprofitable) AI from stuff.

I am so tired of the ai hype and hate. Please give me my gen art interest back please just make it obscure again to program art I beg of you

This is why you're seeing news articles from Sam Altman saying that AGI will blow past us without any societal impact. He's trying to lessen the blow of the bubble bursting for AI/ML.

Welcome to the top of the sigmoid curve.

If you were wondering what 1999 felt like WRT to the internet, well, here we are. The Matrix was still fresh in everyone's mind and a lot of online tech innovation kinda plateaued, followed by some "market adjustments."

It's been 5 minutes since the new thing did a new thing. Is it the end?

As I use copilot to write software, I have a hard time seeing how it'll get better than it already is. The fundamental problem of all machine learning is that the training data has to be good enough to solve the problem. So the problems I run into make sense, like:

1. Copilot can't read my mind and figure out what I'm trying to do.
2. I'm working on an uncommon problem where the typical solutions don't work
3. Copilot is unable to tell when it doesn't "know" the answer, because of course it's just simulating communication and doesn't really know anything.

2 and 3 could be alleviated, but probably not solved completely with more and better data or engineering changes - but obviously AI developers started by training the models on the most useful data and strategies that they think work best. 1 seems fundamentally unsolvable.

I think there could be some more advances in finding more and better use cases, but I'm a pessimist when it comes to any serious advances in the underlying technology.

Of course it'll crash. Saying it's imminent though suggests someone needs to exercise their shorts.

Apparently, there was only so much IP to steal

Short on the AI stocks before it crash!

Fingers crossed.

so long, see you all in the next hype. Any guesses?

Nice, looking forward to it! So much money and time wasted on pipe dreams and hype. We need to get back to some actually useful innovation.