Albanese in trouble as polling shows Dutton most likely to be next PM : australianpolitics

[–] spudsrus@aussie.zone 11 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It's sad, to see.

Feels like Albo lost all political courage and has been too scared to promote a positive vision for the country.

Unwilling to do more than hold onto the working family dad persona.

Could increase aid and resources for Ukraine, actually take a strong attitude to Trump tariff bs by putting tariffs on Tesla, pulling back from AUKUS or strong-arm via pine gap.

But why do anything that could improve the spineless image.

Last time Labor fucked up governing this hard we lost fttp NBN.

[–] shirro@aussie.zone 2 points 6 days ago

They act the way they do because they get attacked if they don't. They don't want to upset the mining lobby, property developers, Murdoch press who will fund huge campaigns against them. Musk runs twitter which has influence and can slip people like Joe Rogan money to tell his listeners that Labor is attacking their rights or some bullshit. Pissing of Trump isnt smart as his executive power is unchecked and he can impose petty revenge tariffs that hurt our economy and workers.

Don't think the ALP are timid because they are weak or unimaginative. They tread a fine line between being tolerated by powerful elites who can toss them out and implementing an agenda that benefits all Australians.

[–] nonentity@sh.itjust.works 11 points 6 days ago (1 children)

The ALP have been the pawl of the L/NP Overton ratchet for at least half a century.

The most unforgivable things Albanese has done is make this country forget how catastrophic Morrison was, and elevate Dutton into a viable candidate.

[–] nonentity@sh.itjust.works 6 points 6 days ago (1 children)

To better illustrate: Rewarding Peter by being the pawl.

[–] shirro@aussie.zone -2 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

You are free to vote for the Socialist Alliance if you want but they aren't winning any seats. You can vote for the Greens but they won't do much better. Whether you like it or not the ALP were founded by Australian workers to give them a political voice and they have done that for over 120 years and delivered some huge wins. They are the reason we have a public health system, pensions, super, minimum wage, somewhat decent working conditions etc.

I have no idea why someone who wants politics to move to the left would shit on the ALP who are hanging in there as best as they can while the world is turning to shit. The people deserting the ALP aren't going to the left. Those that are will come back on preferences. There isn't a huge downside to losing primary vote to parties on your side of politics. Every election a bunch of parties spring up to hoover up disaffected coalition voters and redirect their vote back to the coalition. Nobody is being blocked. You can't sell your message to the Australian people and that isn't Labor's fault. They clearly have the same problems.

[–] pupbiru@aussie.zone 4 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

yeah this graphic was made for the US where FPTP locks them into bullshit… we have choices: our preferences actually send a message… posting this feels all ro ro fight the powah, but it really just makes no sense in our context

[–] Excrubulent@slrpnk.net 4 points 5 days ago

Okay, you can talk about how it works in theory, but in practice we see the rightward ratchet effect. The LNP won an election and immediately raided the ABC journo's offices, which led to David McBride's prosecution, and they did robodebt and prosecuted Richard Boyle.

Then the ALP comes back into power and just allows those prosecutions to continue. We've got another whistleblower prosecution just the last couple of weeks.

That's literally the ratchet effect. They are barely doing anything, just marking time.

The rightward ratchet is not a purely US thing, it is how liberal democracies all over the world behave. The mechanisms are all slightly different but the reality is that our governments are captured by the wealthy and powerful, and they want them to go right, so that's where they go. The two sides of electoral politics are simply a more sustainable method of maintaining that rightward movement.

You say preferences send a message, but I don't feel particularly heard, do you? You know what sends a stronger message? The removal of PMs that go against US interests. Our politicians know exactly where they stand.

[–] Excrubulent@slrpnk.net 0 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Those benefits were won by the actual labour movement.

Parties like the ALP coopt the movement and put an official face on it. They take the wins and put them into legislation so people believe the wins were given to us by our government, which dupes people into thinking our government is legitimate.

Oh and as a bonus legislation can compromise what was actually won by watering it down, so we accept less.

Also you characterise them as "hanging in there" which actually perfectly reflects the pawl in the ratchet. That is exactly what they are doing.

[–] morebento@aussie.zone 6 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Kevin Bonham predicts 51 to 49 going to the L-NP (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/). Based on Antony Green's Swingometer and the 2022 preference flows that means about 74 seats to the L-NP with a 0.5% swing to them (https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/calculator). That is minority government though. They need 76 seats to form government, so it would be a deal with two independents. Which ones? If you can remember the minority government Gillard successfully ran, it meant they were under continual attack by Abbott. But it also means the ALP could form minority government, given they would have 71 seats under that scenario, and would need five independents to form government. I wonder if they would be able to pull that off -- possibly more likely than the L-NP picking up two independents for a stable government, especially with Dutton in power. The so called Teal independents would want nothing to do with him, neither the Greens.

[–] kudra@sh.itjust.works 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Best case scenario frankly is minority govt with greens holding balance of power. Much more chance of getting better legislation passed when greens have to be listened to.

[–] morebento@aussie.zone 1 points 3 days ago

Agreed.

[–] ziltoid101@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

Don't like this trend. I'm resigned to the fact that an ALP majority is very unlikely but I'm hoping LNP stay well below 76 seats. Independents will have a huge bearing on this election.

Also, I had big fears about Bill Shorten and his lack of charisma in 2019, so seeing Dutton do so well in polls is a huge head scratcher. Politics aside he does not present as a leader at all.

[–] TheCriticalMember@aussie.zone 39 points 1 week ago (4 children)

Jesus fucking Christ, are we all learning nothing from what's happening in the US right now???

[–] hanrahan@slrpnk.net 6 points 6 days ago

Yes, what were learning is that we'lll follow the US down the highway of oblivion, its what voters want apparently.

What I'd like to see is we petition the EU to join, and I'd like to see Canada and NZ do the same and any other nation thats wants to we need to be in world thats closer, not more blacanised. The US and UK can go off and do their own thing separately.

Fuck the US they've gone from bad (Regan) to worse (Trump)

[–] gila@lemm.ee 2 points 6 days ago

Labor sure isn't

[–] spiffmeister@aussie.zone 30 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I was honestly hoping that people would see trump, see Dutton trying to emulate him, then go "ahh no maybe not."

[–] TheCriticalMember@aussie.zone 21 points 1 week ago (1 children)

It's pretty horrifying, makes me worry that the average Australian is exactly the kind of person I suspected.

[–] metaStatic@kbin.earth 9 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I'm ashamed to say I still had some hope for this country before the Voice vote.

Did you know there was a progressive No campaign? The only sensible position limped over the line with majority help from racists, I'm fucking done ... not like I can afford to live here any more anyway.

[–] TheCriticalMember@aussie.zone 5 points 6 days ago

Me either. 9 years ago I moved my family here from the US (I'm Aussie born), and I've been dirt poor ever since. But I don't even know where the hell else we'd go.

[–] Australis13@fedia.io 11 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Apparently not, sadly. I cannot believe people cannot see the parallels, but then the average Aussie probably doesn't pay any attention to US politics and the Australian coverage (even from the ABC) is not really explaining just how bad things are.

[–] jonne@infosec.pub 10 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I'm assuming OP is talking about the politicians, not the voters. Labor has been way too conservative around how to tackle the cost of living issues. And that's causing discontent and a rise in crime too, which gets exploited by the right wing.

[–] TheCriticalMember@aussie.zone 16 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It's still infuriating that there are people who think "Labor isn't putting out the fire fast enough, so let's vote for the petrol party".

[–] jonne@infosec.pub 9 points 6 days ago

A lot of voters will just vote for 'change', and don't dig into the actual politics or policies. I get that you can't just turn around things on a dime, but it feels like Labor has been more conservative than they could've been. And then there's the CFMEU clusterfuck, which will cause tens of thousands of union members to put Labor last, regardless of who they put first.

And, I'm not sure if it's just being played up because of the election or what not, there's just too many stories about cars being stolen by young kids, them getting caught and then be bailed out that same night. So you have that fucking helicopter up there for nothing basically.

[–] dumbass@leminal.space 32 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Fuck me, that bald evil cunt is gonna destroy this country.

[–] hanrahan@slrpnk.net 15 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Well, somones voting for these shit stains.

[–] eureka@aussie.zone 2 points 6 days ago

Allegedly over 30% of people are voting for these shit stains.

[–] dumbass@leminal.space 4 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Yeah, dumb fucks, that's who.

[–] shirro@aussie.zone 5 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

I wouldn't assume that. There is too much us vs them divisiveness going around. A lot of people, even those who have some really twisted beliefs are salvageable with a bit of outreach.

I think some of the shift is just the economy. People are impatient for change and the global economy and coalition legacy haven't allowed the ALP to deliver the sort of miracles they pulled during the global financial crisis. People are frustrated and don't know how to direct it.

The nastier side is that some ordinary working people have got sucked up into a bunch of far right politics without really understanding what is motivating it or who it serves and Dutton stands to gain those freshly radicalized voters from Labor. It isn't the whole country. Traditional party voters and traditional values still exist. Dutton stands to benefit, basically for free, from the divisive, extremist politics flooding in from overseas. But its potentially also his vulnerability to be associated with a brand that might quickly turn toxic in Australia depending on overseas developments.

[–] Gorgritch_umie_killa@aussie.zone 20 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Ugh, this feels just like the Voice polling a slow moving car crash.

Will Albanese ever show he's a PM for Australia, and not just a political manager?

I suppose its not surprising the only strategy thats worked in the last few years is small target.

Maybe villainise Dutton, go after him with everything, full negative campaign, make it about Dutton. The guy is dislikeable bash it every chance they get,

Q - What is your plan for this,

A - Our plan is in our policy documents, but wheres Dutton? What's this grand plan he promises?

Instant pivots to Dutton, link him to Rinehardt, and Palmer everytime mining or wealth inequality, or housing is brought up.

[–] pupbiru@aussie.zone 3 points 6 days ago (1 children)

idk that sounds a lot like a “not the other guy” campaign, and i think we’ve pretty conclusively proven that doesn’t work for us

sure, dutton is unlikeable and that should be pointed out at every turn, but as a a contrast to your good policy

[–] Gorgritch_umie_killa@aussie.zone 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Hmm, mediscare did work though, the threat of privatising energybin WA tends to go down well also. But I'm not sure i can think of an example where it has failed. Have you got an example?

Also its not the politics i'd like, thats for sure.

[–] pupbiru@aussie.zone 3 points 5 days ago (1 children)

not specific to australia - i think that “not the other guy” works a lot better for right-leaning parties than left-leaning (or, rather, less right-leaning) parties partly because conservatives campaign on fear, progressives campaign on hope and change. there’s no hope in “that guy sucks and i’m at least not that”

to win on hope and change you need to provide actual policies. to win on fear you only need to tear the other side down; eventually the populace will always get frustrated with the current government, and fear (or, rather, just “a change”) will win just because it’s “not this”

[–] Gorgritch_umie_killa@aussie.zone 1 points 4 days ago

So what your saying is Labor, and other parties/independents need to hook Australians on this fantastic new drug called hopium. ;) maybe..

It is in short supply around the world at the moment, that should change.

If theres one good thing about the US turning in on itself, it'll mean more space for Australians to spread our own cultural, mechanical, industrial, military and many other wings again. Maybe jot be so focused on our "comparative advantages" in the "global market". Theres potentially a lot of hope in projects of that nature.

The world mightn't be in the right place for a message reliant on hope, maybe your right Australians might be. I think even our most regressive individuals are in a different, more detached place from their erstwhile peers in other countries.

[–] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 13 points 1 week ago (2 children)

I duno what can be done tbh, I really don't, as someone else said:

What this says to me... The ALP can go to an election with good policy and lose. The ALP can go to an election with bad policy and lose. The ALP can go to an election with no policy and lose. The sole exception being if the media decide that they need a change and the ALP are going to give them sweet treats.

[–] eureka@aussie.zone 3 points 6 days ago

I duno what can be done tbh, I really don’t

Informing voters, for starters. Break free of the two-party false dichotomy if you realise the ALP are a lost cause, don't believe you are forced to defend them in order to critique the coalition.

I know this is far easier said than done, but there are so many ways to do this which an individual (or better, group of friends/co-workers) like you and me can even casually do this.

[–] Gorgritch_umie_killa@aussie.zone 11 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Yep, this is true. It comes down to the media in this country.

Which makes me pose the question, where the fuck are Labor and the unions on opening or supporting friendly media?

Like, sure the super industry have the New Daily for what thats worth, but arguably Turnbull has done more for media balance in this country than anyone on the "Left" has by being friendly to Guardian coming over here.

The idea that Murdoch still has a lock on country broadcasting along with ABC, after three years of Labor is laughable. They should have been white anting that gift of a contract since day one.

[–] jonne@infosec.pub 8 points 1 week ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

It would help if Labor didn't fuck over one of the biggest unions in the country. They're dragging their feet on giving other union members (nurses, transport workers, etc) the raises they deserve too. Like, these people worked in impossible circumstances during the pandemic, and now the politicians are acting like they completely forgot about that.

Obviously things would be worse with the liberals, but come on. They're just too focused on getting balanced budgets because they don't want a bad headline in the Australian (which they'll get anyway regardless).

[–] Gorgritch_umie_killa@aussie.zone 2 points 6 days ago

They're just too focused on getting a balanced budgets because they don't want a bad headline in the Australian (which they'll get anyway regardless).

Yeah, they shouldn't worry. It'd be interesting in future to get Chalmers to speak candidly about this time period. I find it hard to believe he fully accepts the Classical economics view on balanced budgets.

Also, see my reply to Ikt, i was also replying to your first point. Got a bit carried away, but hey, this ain't a microblogging platform for a reason. :)

[–] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 2 points 6 days ago (2 children)

They’re dragging their feet on giving other union members (nurses, transport workers, etc) the raises they deserve too

Are you mixing up state labor and federal labor?

[–] Gorgritch_umie_killa@aussie.zone 3 points 6 days ago

By the inclusion of transport workers, i'm guessing train workers in particular, i'm guessing they're talking NSW Labor.

I don't know what pay is like for these people over East, but if its anything like here, Nurses and Train workers are paid fairly well. What I meanbto say is they're able to live firmly middle class lifestyles on their incomes.

To fix the crises in cost of living and housing we really want to be targeting the lower end band of wages, and increasing costs on housing investments like tax discounts and exemptions; at the same time some of these tax discounts apply to assets in general, those should stay, to promote the conversion of investment in property (all types), to more productive assets (ASX, private enterprises, Super, the list is endless). By doing this we'll begin gaving a pool of money aiming for diverse growth investments, thereby helping the economy to diversify theough private capital flows.

Government of course can help direct these private capital flows by crowding in with Government resources (grants, exemptions, lending,etc) on those industries and companies that align with national targets, such as building feckin submarines, or whatever the shit the Government of the day wants.

Bit of rant, sorry. Reading Mariana Mazzucato again.

[–] jonne@infosec.pub 1 points 6 days ago

People generally don't know or care which level of government is responsible for what, and for most issues it's a mix anyway: state governments can't run a deficit the same way a Federal government can, so they could pitch in one way or another, especially if they're almost all run by the same party until recently.

[–] spiffmeister@aussie.zone 7 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I think the right has been emboldened by their success in the US as well and is dumping more money into the campaign this time. For instance advance has a shitload of money to throw at LNP opponents and have absolutely no problem lying or astroturfing movements.

Yep, this is true. It comes down to the media in this country.

Which makes me pose the question, where the fuck are Labor and the unions on opening or supporting friendly media?

I agree RE the friendly media, but also the teals did propose a truth in political advertising law that may have been able to clamp down on some of the bullshit. Because you better believe that the lnp is using the same dickheads that Morrison used for political advertising.

[–] Gorgritch_umie_killa@aussie.zone 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Yeah, i'll never understand the philosophy behind Labor not supporting that.

I've heard it explained as, we need both sides otherwise its untenable and the LNP will repeal it in the Government they have.

But thats fine, sets up a political fight that future Labor can bash LNP over the head with, its an issue Labor could fight on, and at best overwhelm the agenda of that LNP Government, rendering them less effective. Come voting time the electorate will wonder what they've done apart from fight with the opposition all term. Thats maybe a best case scenario though.

I've also heard it makes it hard for campaign promises, statements. I don't buy it, seems like an easy out. Or i'm not taking the time to understand it.

[–] spiffmeister@aussie.zone 3 points 6 days ago

It might make it more difficult to run a scare campaign, arguably like "mediscare". But if Labor is worried about not being able to lie a bit I get the feeling they're about to see just how outclassed they really are.

[–] baseball2020@aussie.zone 12 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Not many incumbents have survived the post covid landscape, so this doesn’t come as a huge surprise. Given this knowledge I expected labour to go out swinging, and take a chance on a more radical policy platform. Unfortunately, they seem to water down everything to appease everyone and it begins to feel like a status quo platform. Exactly the opposite kind of message for an electorate with an ever diminishing standard of living, desperate to try everything (even siding with far right populist policy) to dig themselves out.

[–] maegul@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Yea, a genuinely interesting take on Trump’s win was that single term Govts are the new normal.

As to why, that’s likely a whole discussion, but some hand wavy accelerationism shit show captures the energy sufficiently I’d say.

I’m not following international politics, but I’ve recently heard of the situation in Germany, and that seems on track to follow the same trend.

[–] veroxii@aussie.zone 2 points 6 days ago

Canada too. It's very close in polling for their upcoming election.

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