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Tara Mahoney sits down with Desmond Cole to discuss the climate gaps in CBC’s wildfire coverage
The post Why is CBC’s reporting on wildfires ignoring the role of climate change? appeared first on The Breach.
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As Canadian politicians promise a carbon emissions fix, the country burns. Here’s what you need to know
(thenarwhal.ca)
Photo: J. Carl Ganter / Circle of Blue
Wildfires are raging in every province and territory across Canada, leaving entire First Nations communities burnt, upending the lives of thousands of evacuees and creating plumes of toxic smoke dirtying the air in major cities like Toronto and New York.
While some politicians claim the out-of-control wildfires are being primarily caused by improper forest management, scientists agree that climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, is the main culprit.
To stop contributing to the problem, the Canadian government could be implementing strict limits on the oil and gas industry for their carbon dioxide emissions. But Prime Minister Mark Carney has rejected that idea, opting instead for an unproven technological fix.
In doing so, The Narwhal reported this week, the prime minister has become the latest in a long line of politicians to make big promises about carbon capture and storage to cut industrial emissions, despite the technology’s meager track record in Canada.
Read on to learn more.
- Climate change from fossil fuels is making wildfires more severe and more frequent
Climate change is altering rainfall and storm patterns, creating hotter and drier conditions and more lighting strikes, causing fire seasons to start earlier and last longer and making those fires burn hotter, grow bigger and spread quicker. The result: Canada’s most recent fire seasons have been among the worst on record.
There’s only one real way to slow this escalating problem, scientists say: stop using so much coal, oil and natural gas, the fossil fuels that generate the emissions that are trapping heat in the atmosphere, changing the climate and leading to more extreme weather.
In Canada, the oil and gas industry is the country’s largest source of emissions. That’s partly because the type of petroleum in Alberta’s oilsands, the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserve, requires extra electricity, steam, fuel and machines to turn it into usable products like gasoline compared to some other oil deposits. Oilsands emissions have grown from 41 million tonnes in 2007 to 92 million tonnes in 2024.
- Carney expects Canada will soon generate more, not less, emissions
As Ontario faces its deadliest wildfire season on record and other provinces and territories have been similarly devastated in recent years, Carney is focused on coordinating an emergency response with those jurisdictions, including managing the thousands of firefighting personnel and hundreds of aircraft involved. The prime minister says he’s committed to deploying “every resource needed to keep Canadians safe.”
He also signed a deal with Alberta meant to increase oil production. The deal, which includes a commitment to build a new oil pipeline, is expected to result in more carbon pollution. Carney has admitted his government’s actions will raise emissions. More Canadian emissions means Canada is contributing more to the global problem of climate change that’s making wildfires worse.
Environmental advocate Catherine Abreu, a former member of Canada’s Net-Zero Advisory Body, told MPs in June that Carney’s government has “repealed or weakened virtually every climate policy and regulation that Canada had developed in the last decade.”
- Instead of capping emissions, Carney is betting on carbon capture technology
Carney’s deal with Alberta promises not to follow through with a proposal, first made during the government of former prime minister Justin Trudeau, to implement an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector.
A cap is a government mandate to prevent emissions from rising beyond a certain point. It’s something the industry itself previously said was achievable: in 2022 a group of oilsands producers came out with a plan they said could cut 22 million tonnes of annual emissions by 2030. That plan involved carbon capture, a technology that filters out carbon dioxide from industrial exhaust streams and stores it so it doesn’t get released into the air.
But even though the Trudeau government proposed the emissions cap as a way to ensure the industry followed through with that plan, oil companies fought the cap proposal and Carney eventually agreed not to implement it.
Now, Carney’s deal with Alberta includes an agreement to build a carbon capture and storage network in the province, but the ambition has been dialed back considerably. Five oilsands companies agreed in July to use carbon capture technology to remove just six million tonnes of emissions per year by 2035, and a “range of technologies” to eventually capture 16 million tonnes per year by 2045.
Compare that with an average of 20 million tonnes a year in new emissions from the oilsands that the Canadian Climate Institute has estimated will result from higher production levels to feed the new oil pipeline in the deal.
- The track record for carbon capture of industrial emissions in Canada is bleak
Carbon capture and storage is real, and in use at nine commercial operations in Canada. But the technology is expensive and requires lots of new construction to scale up, while globally it has underperformed, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
The results speak for themselves. Over a 24-year period, 68.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide was captured across Canada, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada. That means the oilsands added more to the atmosphere in one year than carbon capture technology has ever stopped from industrial sources over more than two decades.
While oilsands emissions more than doubled from 2007 to 2024, the cumulative amount of carbon being captured from industrial sources is still “on the order of several [million] tonnes per year,” a Natural Resources Canada spokesperson told The Narwhal.
But that’s relatively tiny, compared to the eye-popping figure of 600 million tonnes a year that a government report had once claimed Canada could theoretically capture.
As early as 2007, then-prime minister Stephen Harper was touting the benefits of “the exciting new technology called carbon capture.” After nearly two decades of political enthusiasm about the technology, carbon capture has yet to deliver significant emissions reductions. Photo illustration: Shawn Parkinson / The Narwhal. Photos: Tom Hanson, Christopher Katsarov Luna and Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press
- Carney’s support for carbon capture makes him the latest in a long line of politicians to tout its benefits
Despite this underperformance, both Liberal and Conservative federal governments in Canada keep projecting optimism about carbon capture’s prospects, dating back to former prime minister Stephen Harper, who gave a speech in Edmonton in 2007 that sounds strangely familiar now. This week, The Narwhal peered into the historical public record — and the national archives — to show just how real the enthusiasm has been.
In Edmonton, Harper talked about “the exciting new technology called carbon capture and storage.” He told Canadians that, “instead of pumping tonnes of carbon dioxide into the Earth’s atmosphere, we may be able to collect it from our oilsands … and pump it deep underground where it will remain for eternity.” He projected confidence, saying he felt “the era of empty rhetoric on the environment is over” and “we’re taking real action that will produce real, tangible results.”
In 2011, his then-natural resources minister Joe Oliver called Canada “a world leader in carbon capture and storage” and “in an excellent position to use this technology on a wide scale.” (Oliver recently wrote an op-ed opposing the latest carbon capture proposal in the oilsands, in part because of the technology’s spotty track record.)
After Trudeau won power in 2015, his first natural resources minister, Jim Carr, told a ballroom full of people in New York in 2016 that carbon capture is one of “the most pressing issues of the day.” One of Carr’s successors, Seamus O’Regan, would go on to describe carbon capture as “an integral part of lowering emissions” that was part of “how we get to net zero.” In 2021, he said Canada was “on the cusp of doing a lot of these things.”
Last year, Carney’s minister of energy and natural resources, Tim Hodgson, a former oilsands company board member, told a Calgary business crowd that the government, as much as private industry, should be pulling for the carbon capture project in the oilsands. In a faint echo of Harper, he said this government “will not be a government of talk, but a government of action.”
The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.
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In a bid to transform Canada’s drug laws, Vancouver activists risk life imprisonment
(breachmedia.ca)
Two activists who sourced, tested, and distributed drugs could face life in prison. Their Charter challenge argues drug users have a right to a safer supply
The post In a bid to transform Canada’s drug laws, Vancouver activists risk life imprisonment appeared first on The Breach.
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Meet Rajpreet Sahota, The Narwhal’s first-ever community and policy reporting fellow
(thenarwhal.ca)
Photo: Sid Naidu / The Narwhal
Growing up in Brampton, Ont., Rajpreet Sahota remembers the sounds of the evening news filling her home. By the time she was in high school, she had decided her goal was to one day become a television news anchor.
Only in her 20s, Rajpreet has already achieved that goal — her first job after graduate school included anchoring the 6 o’clock news in Fort St. John, B.C. But she has already moved beyond her high school dream. These days, she says her preferred journalistic practice is “less about sitting behind the anchor desk and more about being out in the community.”
That approach will serve her well at The Narwhal, where she recently became our first-ever community and policy reporting fellow. During her ten-month fellowship, Rajpreet will report on how environmental policy affects racialized communities in Ontario.
Over a month into her fellowship, Rajpreet has written about a youth-led push to improve recycling in Constance Lake First Nation and a lawsuit from Attawapiskat First Nation over historical diesel contamination. She also produced a comprehensive account of the environmental policy changes the Doug Ford government has made since winning the 2025 election.
The Narwhal’s community and policy reporting fellowship gives early- to mid-career journalists an opportunity to produce impactful work while learning alongside more seasoned reporters, and Rajpreet says she’s already learning a lot at The Narwhal — including how to file her first freedom of information request.
Read on to learn a bit more about Rajpreet.
What inspired you to go into journalism?
Every morning before school and every afternoon when I got home, my parents would have the news on. It became such a normal part of my daily routine that I didn’t really think much of it at first. But after years of watching reporters tell stories from across the Greater Toronto Area, something clicked.
I remember being in Grade 10 when I turned to my sister, pointed at the TV, and said: “That’s what I want to do. I want to anchor the news.”
And you recently achieved that dream in Fort St. John, B.C. What was that like?
Yes, I did! It was an incredible experience. It was my first job after finishing my master’s, and working in a small market meant wearing many different hats. I was the only reporter based in Fort St. John.
After a day in the field, I’d head back to the newsroom to write my script and get everything ready for the evening newscast. I anchored the 6 o’clock news once or twice a week. That meant introducing the top stories, reading the weather, talking about sports and helping guide viewers through the entire broadcast.
Being dropped into one of the smallest towns I’ve ever lived in, far from home and on my own, was definitely a challenge, but it pushed me to become more confident in every aspect of reporting. It was an amazing opportunity so early in my career.
Since earning her Masters of Journalism degree from Carleton University in 2023, Rajpreet has reported from communities across Canada and worked for the CBC, CTV News and Bell Media. She says her biggest lesson is that getting out into the community is the best way to find stories. “Everyday conversations often uncover the issues that aren’t making headlines, and to me, that’s what journalism is all about.” Photo: Sid Naidu / The Narwhal
Your journalism career has also taken you to Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Hamilton and Ottawa. What have you learned about reporting from so many different communities?
I’ve grown a lot as both a journalist and a person. I’ve learned how to report from wildfire zones, cover court proceedings and break down government policies in different provinces and communities. Every place I’ve worked has taught me something new and helped me become a more versatile reporter.
But the biggest lesson has been realizing just how many stories are out there waiting to be told. Some of the best story ideas come from striking up a conversation with someone at a coffee shop, chatting with someone on the street or simply being curious enough to explore what’s happening in a community. Those everyday conversations often uncover the issues that aren’t making headlines, and to me, that’s what journalism is all about.
What kind of journalism do you engage with in your free time?
Outside of work, I’m a big fan of crime documentaries and investigative journalism. I like learning how the police investigate major cases, how they put all the pieces together and uncover what happened.
I also like learning about history, like the history of cities, how certain landmarks came to be or major events that shaped a community. If I’m being honest, I sometimes wish I could have experienced those moments firsthand.
At the same time, I consume news the same way a lot of people in their 20s do. I get information from Instagram and TikTok accounts that break down complex ideas into engaging explainers, like The Narwhal!
I hear you’ve joined the controversial group of Narwhal employees who dislike camping. So … what other ways do you spend time outside?
Yes, I hate camping! The first camping experience I ever had was when I was in elementary school. I still remember, there were so many bugs everywhere. I was like, “I’m never doing this again.”
But I like to go outside. When I lived in northern B.C. and northern Ontario, there were a lot of hiking trails that I enjoyed. Now, I live right next to Sugar Beach Park in downtown Toronto, and I walk there several times a week after work.
What do you do for fun?
I like staying active, especially by taking pilates and yoga classes on the weekends. I also like baking and trying out new recipes. It’s a great way to recharge after a busy week of chasing stories.
And I love event decor! I love putting together tablescapes, planning different party themes and hosting parties. I even tried to launch my own side business a couple of years ago focusing on decor. I’d help people decorate and set up for their events. But I think journalism is a better plan.
The Narwhal’s community and policy reporting fellowship is designed to give early- to mid-career journalists an opportunity to hone their skills while producing impactful work for a diverse audience. Photo: Sid Naidu / The Narwhal
Decor isn’t your only side hustle. Tell us about Blind Date With a Book TO.
Blind Date With a Book TO started during the COVID-19 pandemic to keep myself busy. How it works is simple: someone would answer a few questions about the kinds of books they enjoyed, and I’d choose a title that I thought they’d love without telling them what it was.
Each order was wrapped like a true blind date with a book. I hand-made a custom bookmark and included a cozy drink like hot chocolate or tea.
I received orders from across Canada and even parts of Europe, which was incredible for something that started as a passion project.
You’re spending eight more months at The Narwhal. What’s one story you hope to tell before you leave?
There’s a series of stories I’m really excited to work on before I leave. It looks at cooling injustice, which is the idea that access to relief from extreme heat — through air conditioning, shade and green spaces — is inequitably distributed. It’s a topic that touches on climate, equity and public health. I’m looking forward to exploring the different ways it affects people’s everyday lives. I can’t say much more than that just yet, but it’s definitely a story to watch for.
The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.
From The Narwhal | News on Climate Change, Environmental Issues in Canada via This RSS Feed.
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Summary
- As wildfire smoke worsens across Canada, volunteers are teaching people to build low-cost DIY air purifiers.
- The fan-and-filter devices can perform as well as commercial HEPA air purifiers while costing around $60 to make.
- Organizers say the workshops provide practical protection from smoke while building community in the face of climate change.
On a sunny Saturday in July, a few dozen people file into a United Church on a quiet, tree-lined street near Victoria. Outside, the sky is clear and cloudless — a far cry from the wildfire smoke blanketing other parts of Canada. Inside, people are taking steps to protect themselves from the toxic smoke that has become a regular feature of Canadian summers.
As climate change makes summers hotter and drier, wildfire season becomes, on average, longer and more severe. More Canadians are experiencing the impacts with every breath they take and three-quarters say they’re concerned about wildfire smoke impacting their air quality. Once smoke rolls in, air purifiers — filtration machines capable of removing toxic chemicals and tiny particulates from the air — can be difficult to find in stores, even for those who can afford them.
Bill Darnell has been involved in climate action for decades. He was inspired to organize the air purifier workshop after learning about a similar event held in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside. Photo: Phyllis Beardsley
But at the church, participants are learning to build simple, effective air purifiers at a workshop organized by Bill Darnell, a local resident who helped found Greenpeace in 1970.
“I’ve been involved in social justice and climate action pretty much all my adult life and it’s kind of discouraging that I’m still having to do it at this point,” Darnell tells The Narwhal.
Darnell was inspired to organize the event after learning about a similar workshop that took place in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside. He and other volunteers use information compiled by the BC Lung Foundation and Simon Fraser University to help people build simple DIY air purifiers, using simple and accessible components like box fans, furnace filters and duct tape.
A 2023 study conducted at the National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health found these air purifiers can perform as well as commercial air purifiers equipped with high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters. While HEPA-equipped air purifiers often cost hundreds of dollars, the materials for these DIY versions cost less than $60. Since 2023, the BC Lung Association has logged more than 160 community workshops where participants have built more than 3,200 air purifiers.
The simple air cleaners are quick and easy to assemble. It takes about 25 minutes to complete one solo; less when people work together. Photo: Shannon Waters / The Narwhal
B.C. has recorded 634 wildfires since April 2026 and 98 are currently burning across the province. The fires have put thousands of British Columbians on evacuation alert, while others have been evacuated — like the community of Boston Bar in the Fraser Valley, where a rapidly spreading wildfire nearby also closed the Trans-Canada Highway for four days in early July. Even so, wildfire smoke has — so far this year — had less of an impact on air quality than in previous years. Most of the province is experiencing low**–to–moderate–**risk air quality. Meanwhile, intense wildfire activity in Ontario made Toronto’s air quality the worst in the world on July 15.
Darnell describes the DIY air purifier workshop as an opportunity to build community and educate people while also empowering them to take action in the face of a direct threat like climate change.
“It really is important to come together when you’re facing a catastrophe,” he says. “There’s the fast-moving ones like floods and fires, and there’s the slower-moving ones like climate change and smoke. The most important resource is the people around you.”
A fan, a filter, a roll of duct tape: a simple solution for cleaner air
Wildfire smoke is more toxic than everyday air pollution. It can travel thousands of kilometres and linger in the air for weeks.
The smoke contains gases, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds, like benzene, toluene and butene. There is also particulate matter, which can include soot, dust, pollen and spores, as well as chemical particles. The particles are classified according to size and fine particulates — the really tiny ones, less than 2.5 microns in diameter and typically referred to as PM2.5 — pose the greatest threats to human health because they can travel deeper into the lungs than larger ones.
Fine particulates found in smoke and other types of air pollution have been linked to damage in several organ systems, including the heart, brain and reproductive system.
Certain air filters are capable of removing particulates from the air. The DIY air purifiers use a single MERV 13, commonly used in furnaces and available in Canada for less than $20 per filter, which need to be changed out regularly to maintain performance.
The 20” filters fit perfectly on the back of a 20” box fan, which costs about $35. Duct tape seals the filter to the fan, allowing air to be drawn through the filter and pushed out through the fan. To increase the air purifier’s efficiency, a “shroud” can be placed on the side of the fan opposite the filter. Made of duct tape or cardboard, the shroud blocks off the corners of the fan face, preventing air backflow.
The “shroud” on the face of the fan helps prevent air backflow and increases the air purifier’s efficiency. Photo: Shannon Waters / The Narwhal
It takes about 25 minutes to assemble one air purifier, which can be used immediately to clean the air in a space of up to 400 square feet. At the Victoria workshop, each table soon sports at least one, some of them decorated with colourful duct tape designs, others sleek and white.
Community in the face of climate crisis
Among the workshop attendees is Victoria city councillor Dave Thompson, who is considering putting on a workshop in the neighbouring municipality.
“I wanted to see how it got organized,” Thompson says. “We’ve been very active on climate change and this is a piece we haven’t done yet.”
Many participants express a desire to do what they can in the face of the climate emergency.
“I feel like whatever we can do on an individual basis for ourselves and our families is always helpful,” Mary Jean, a nurse, tells a fellow participants at her table.
Around the room, several signs feature prompts for conversations about climate change and climate action.
“According to polls, 80 per cent of Canadians are worried about climate, but we often think we’re the only ones,” Darnell says. “So what we’re providing is a place where we can come, do something positive, have fun and know that we’re among people and we can talk about it.”
More than 930,000 hectares of Canada’s forests were logged between 1990 and 2020, according to Natural Resources Canada. Research has found forest canopies help regulate the water cycle, lowering the likelihood wildfires will start and slowing their spread. Photo: Mike Graeme / The Narwhal
Climate change is making wildfires more likely and more intense. Between 1948 and 2024, annual average temperatures in Canada increased by an average of 2.8 C, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada.
In B.C., wildfires have burned about 10 million hectares of land, more than in the previous six decades combined, according to the BC Wildfire Service.
While Darnell feels discouraged about the state of climate action at the provincial and federal level, he sees the importance of people gathering.
Community can be an important part of addressing the climate crisis. Many participants at the air purifier workshop were keen to do what they can in the face of the climate emergency. Photo: Shannon Waters / The Narwhal
“A lot of the province, particularly to the east of us, is on fire at the moment and certainly in the rest of Canada as well. We are trying to provide practical help for people in the community,” he says.
“People really need a place to come together and just say, ‘Am I crazy?’ No, you’re not. The behaviors of our economy, of our corporations and our government are crazy at the moment.”
The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.
From The Narwhal | News on Climate Change, Environmental Issues in Canada via This RSS Feed.
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Black prisoners are assigned harsher living conditions in Ontario jails—thanks to AI
(breachmedia.ca)
Ontario jails are using a program that claims it can predict prisoners’ behaviour, disproportionately putting Black prisoners in higher-security facilities
The post Black prisoners are assigned harsher living conditions in Ontario jails—thanks to AI appeared first on The Breach.
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Photo: Supplied by Amara Possian
I am standing in my kitchen in a grey cotton robe, holding my baby — 12 weeks old today — swaying back and forth as he sleeps on my chest. I am acutely aware that my heart is right under his head, that he can hear my heartbeat, a source of comfort and regulation. No matter how calm I look on the outside, no matter how slowly I sway, he can probably still feel it beating quickly. Too quickly.
I feel anxious looking at the eerie scene out the window. Our entire home has an orange glow. I noticed it as soon as I opened my eyes this morning, the light already wrong before I was fully awake. It’s familiar now — other parts of the country, other parts of the world, have lived this many more times than Toronto has. But even here, we know the scene: orange skies, a bright sun hazed over in the distance, headlines that Toronto has the worst air quality in the world, because fires are raging in northern Ontario. On Tuesday, it felt like 47 degrees outside. A couple of weeks ago, the same. We’ve been under multiple heat domes and heat advisories this summer.
When I found out I’d be giving birth in the spring, I was excited. I imagined parks, walks with friends; a summer spent outdoors. And yet over the past many weeks, it has often been too hot or too smoky to leave home — and I am aware, even as I say that, of how much safety our heat pump and well-insulated walls buy us. Not everyone gets to wait this out indoors. Right now, tenants across this city are stuck in apartments with no cooling at all, no way to open a window and feel relief, because our governments keep letting rent climb while doing nothing to guarantee a liveable indoor temperature. Toronto already legislates a minimum indoor temperature for winter. There is still no equivalent maximum for summer, even as doctors warn heat is causing excess deaths among seniors and that any delay in a bylaw will cost lives.
Toronto, like many cities with rising seasonal temperatures, does not currently have legislation mandating maximum indoor temperatures. In addition to the effects of smoke, many residents also face sweltering summer living conditions. Photo: Laura Proctor / The Canadian Press
A friend told me that her kids didn’t even question the N95 mask she wore to water the garden this week. They’ve grown up with summers like this, and to them it barely registers as strange. Yet when I called my dad to warn him about the air quality, he said, “Oh, that’s why it looks weird outside” — he had noticed the sky but hadn’t connected it to smoke. “But there aren’t fires here,” he said, as if that settled it. He described seeing ash on his car but wasn’t concerned because he doesn’t feel it’s affecting him. But the particles in this smoke are small enough to slip past the body’s defences, working their way deep into the lungs and bloodstream, where they can inflame and damage organs whether or not you ever feel short of breath. The distance between my friends’ kids’ understanding of this and how little urgency my dad feels is a reminder of how quickly the baseline is shifting, and how differently each generation is being asked to carry our reality.
Last night, when my baby was struggling for a few hours, I kept my nervous system calm, telling myself: let’s just sway a little, rock a little, walk a bit around the house. Sure, we can’t go outside, but there’s so much we can do in here. We can bounce. We can listen to music — his favourite song at the moment, Pump Up the Jam, discovered by my partner during a particularly stressful diaper change. It was manageable because a friend was over. It was also manageable because I knew it would end. My calm could regulate his nervous system, which he still borrows from mine, because I knew it would end. He eventually calmed down and went to sleep.
This morning, I changed him, fed him, played with him on the floor for a while — that orange cast still hanging over everything, a low hum in another room, there, but not yet something I could afford to feel. It was only once I’d gotten him down for his first nap, once I was standing in the kitchen swaying with him against my chest, that it actually landed: what that smoke actually is, and where it’s coming from. Here in Toronto, many of us can close the windows, turn on the air purifier, wait it out.
Wildfire smoke particles can enter the lungs and bloodstreams of children, including newborns. ”For now, my job is to keep swaying, to keep the room calm,” writes Amara Possian. Photo: Laura Proctor / The Canadian Press
In Namaygoosisagagun First Nation, there was no waiting it out — residents had only minutes to reach boats as fire jumped the rail line behind their homes, evacuating without the support of emergency services. And this is the summer our government chose to scrap emissions targets, support a new oilsands pipeline with public money and accelerate LNG projects — decisions that will likely make summers like this one more frequent, more severe and harder to survive for the people who have the least power to protect themselves. I am standing here trying to calm my own anxiety so my baby can keep sleeping, aware that my heartbeat alone can unsettle him, while people who hold so much more power than I do are making choices that will shape the rest of his life.
Baby Z, I don’t know yet how I am supposed to show you the beauty of the world, and everything there is left to save, everything there is to fight for, without burdening you with the grief of everything we have already lost, and all the things I experienced that you never will. Someday you’ll need to know all of it — who made these choices, and why, and what it cost — and I hope you’ll be someone who fights back. But for now, my job is to keep swaying, to keep the room calm, to let you sleep a little longer before any of this is yours to carry.
The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.
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Photo: Laura Proctor / The Canadian Press
Summary
- On Wednesday, Toronto’s air quality was the worst in the world, as wildfire smoke from northern Ontario blanketed the city.
- Research suggests even moderate levels of wildfire smoke can pose significant health risks.
- The federal government uses the Air Quality Health Index to communicate the severity of air pollution. The higher the index score, the more precautions people — especially those with health conditions — should take to stay safe and comfortable.
On Tuesday, Sol Mamakwa was driving to Thunder Bay, Ont., sunshine behind him, darkness ahead.
The Ontario NDP MPP represents the large, remote northwestern Ontario region that is currently burning at extreme rates. More than 100 active wildfires in his riding have displaced six communities so far, and put dozens more under threat as temperatures reached close to 40 C on July 15.”
Meanwhile, choking smoke from these fires has spread more than 1,000 kilometres away, making Toronto’s air quality one of the worst in the world. (On Wednesday, it was even the worst in the world and hospital visits are on the rise.)
There are more than 100 wildfires burning in Ontario, most of them in the northwest region of the province. Map: Government of Ontario
Ontario is not the only province burning. Per the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System, 858 active forest fires across the country have impacted 2.4 million hectares to date; 111 of these fires are considered out of control. Such wildfires are fuelled by warmer-than-average temperatures and drier conditions which make forests more prone to burning and lead to fires spreading faster and further.
This year, there have already been 483 wildfires recorded inside Ontario’s fire region, compared to 351 last year and the 10-year average of 320. The number of fires has been climbing sharply, with 31 new fires discovered in a single day earlier this week.
“It’s eerie to be in my part of Ontario right now,” Mamakwa told The Narwhal. “The situation is unprecedented, and it’s getting worse.”
As the number of wildfires grows, so do the health risks of smoke, which is more toxic than normal pollution as it can linger in the air for weeks and travel thousands of kilometres.
“Wildfires in my region have gotten worse and are getting worse,” Mamakwa said. “It needs to be treated like the emergency it is. Every possible measure needs to be taken to keep our communities safe.”
Here are some things you need to know.
Wildfire smoke may increase health risks
Wildfire smoke continues to cloud much of Ontario, forcing people to stay inside as much as possible.
This kind of smoke has three main ingredients. There are gases, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds, like benzene, toluene and butene. There is also particulate matter, which can include soot, dust, pollen and spores, as well as chemical particles. The particles are classified according to size and fine particulates — the really tiny ones, less than 2.5 microns in diameter and typically referred to as PM2.5 — pose the greatest threats to human health because they can travel deeper into the lungs than larger ones.
The more particulates in the air, the hazier it becomes. Extremely poor air quality due to wildfire smoke is hard to ignore, often resulting in new reports and public health warnings to stay indoors and take precautions.
Research suggests even moderate levels of wildfire smoke can pose significant health risks, especially for people with chronic lung diseases like asthma or emphysema that make them more vulnerable to negative health impacts. Fine particulates found in smoke and other types of air pollution have been linked to damage in several organ systems, including the heart, brain and reproductive system.According to a study by the Canadian Climate Institute, long-term exposure to increased toxic wildfire smoke is associated with an estimated 2,500 premature deaths annually in Canada. The study found wildfire smoke caused an estimated total of $5.3 billion in acute health damages between 2014 and 2025.
Most air quality advisories in Canada are now the result of wildfires, not other pollution
Wildfires are now the most common reason for air quality advisories, which are issued when concentrations of particulate matter and hazardous gases rise to levels that can negatively impact human health.
To help Canadians understand the health risks stemming from current air conditions, authorities use the Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), a colour-coded scale of one to 10 (with a plus sign if it’s off the charts), based on concentrations of ozone, particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide — the pollutants found to have the greatest health impacts.
The higher the health index score, the greater the risk and the more precautions people — especially those with health conditions that make them vulnerable to poor air quality — may need to take to stay safe and comfortable. Avoiding polluted air by staying inside and using air purifiers is the most effective protection but avoiding strenuous outdoor activity and wearing a respirator can also help.
Small amounts of wildfire smoke also come with long-term health risks
At the University of British Columbia, physician Chris Carlsten is leading an effort to shed light on how wildfire smoke affects human health over the short and long term. His team was recently awarded a federal grant to support its work.
Carlsten said the team is focusing on chronic exposure to any amount of wildfire smoke versus acute exposure to high levels, even though the short-term peaks are “problematic.”
“There may be more health effects, ultimately, from the more common but lower-concentration exposures,” Carlsten said in an interview. The team will also explore how wildfire smoke affects people differently based on age, sex, genetics, exercise habits and socio-economic status.
Better data will help improve public health policy and planning when wildfires flare, allowing people to make more informed choices about how to reduce their risk.
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The Nous Group, an Australian consulting firm, has raked in millions for “fixing” universities in financial freefall. Their solution? Corporatization
The post A notorious consulting firm is selling austerity. Canada’s universities are buying appeared first on The Breach.
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‘Industrial sacrifice zone’: the plan to bring oil supertankers to the mouth of the Fraser River
(thenarwhal.ca)
Summary
- Alberta’s plan to build a pipeline to B.C.’s south coast includes a new terminal capable of servicing supertankers sailing into the Salish Sea.
- If the project goes ahead, very large crude carriers (VLCCs) capable of carrying up to 2.2 million barrels of oil could be loading up at Roberts Bank in the Fraser River estuary.
- A major expansion of the Roberts Bank superport is already in the works with potentially catastrophic impacts on local endangered species.
At the mouth of B.C.’s largest river, industrial development has encroached on important ecosystems for decades. Now, Canada’s plans to boost shipping infrastructure and create a new terminal for oil tankers could increase stress on endangered species and critical habitat.
The Fraser River is truly vast. Its tributaries carry water from nearly one-quarter of B.C., and its delta — the area where the river’s waters mingle with the Salish Sea — stretches from the Vancouver neighbourhood of Point Grey to the American settlement of Point Roberts.
In between, there are mudflats, sandy beaches, eelgrass beds and salt marshes that provide critical habitat for young salmon, migrating birds and countless other species.
Western sandpipers in front of Deltaport in Tsawwassen. The shorebirds rely on Roberts Bank in the Fraser estuary as a place to rest and refuel with high-fat biofilm. The estuary is set to be forever changed by the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 expansion and now possibly an additional terminal to service an additional pipeline.
“These are really productive environments for fish, for shellfish, for mammals, for birds,” Misty MacDuffee, a salmon biologist and director of Raincoast Conservation Foundation’s wild salmon program, says.
Freshwater from the Fraser pushes all the way out to the Gulf Islands and the tidal flow from the Salish Sea can make its way all the way to Mission, MacDuffee told The Narwhal. That mingling of freshwater and saltwater creates crucial habitat for young salmon as they make the transition from river living to ocean swimming.“We’ve got all five species of salmon going into the Fraser. It’s Canada’s most productive salmon system — our largest Chinook producer — and it’s really important for the rearing and the migrations of adult and juvenile salmon.”This region has long been subject to development, from canneries and agriculture, to airports and port infrastructure. But now the pressure is ramping up.
The pipeline pivot to Roberts Bank
On July 2, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced federal support for $10 billion in infrastructure upgrades at the Roberts Bank superport as part of a memorandum of understanding with B.C.
In the agreement, the federal government also pledged to preserve the ban on oil tankers transiting the waters near B.C.’s North Coast. Keeping the tanker ban in place “without alteration, suspension or narrowing of scope,” as the agreement states, removed the port at Prince Rupert as an option for the terminus of Alberta’s proposed pipeline. Prince Rupert is Canada’s deepest natural harbour, capable of accommodating very large crude carriers (VLCCs), huge tanker ships capable of carrying up to 2.2 million barrels of oil — three times as much as the largest oil tankers currently servicing the Trans Mountain pipeline.
Later the same day, Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced plans for a new West Coast pipeline (funded primarily by state-owned pipeline company Trans Mountain), which would follow the same route as the current Trans Mountain pipeline with one key difference: it would detour further south to end at Roberts Bank, instead of in Burnaby.
Alberta’s submission to the federal Major Projects Office includes a two-berth terminal able to serve very large crude carriers. These ships are 330 metres long — that’s more than three World Cup soccer pitches laid end to end — and have a fully loaded draft of 20 metres. To reach water deep enough for these massive vessels to float in, the terminal’s causeway and jetty would extend about five kilometres out into the Strait of Georgia.
An artistic rendering showing the proposed Port of Vancouver’s Roberts Bank Terminal 2 expansion. We don’t yet know if or how an additional terminal would fit alongside the planned expansion. Image: Port of Vancouver
If the project goes ahead, it would be the first time that oil tankers of this size have ever docked in B.C. The largest tankers that can fit beneath the Second Narrows bridge to service Westridge Marine Terminal — the current terminus of the Trans Mountain pipeline — are Aframax tankers, which have a maximum capacity of 800,000 barrels of oil. Currently, even those tankers can only be filled to about 80 per cent, so the port authority has applied to dredge Burrard Inlet to make room for larger loads (a plan the Tsleil–Waututh Nation is fighting).
On land, the proposed oil terminal would take up 260 hectares — nearly two-thirds the size of Stanley Park. About half of that space would be covered with 15 storage tanks capable of holding 6.5 million barrels.Roberts Bank’s location — hemmed by wetlands, Tsawwassen First Nation treaty lands, parcels in the Agricultural Land Reserve and residential neighbourhoods — raises questions about whether there is enough room for Alberta’s proposal. The Major Projects Office did not respond when asked whether any assessments about fitting the proposed tanker terminal in that location have been completed.A question about whether the oil tanker terminal could be built in conjunction with the proposed port expansion or would have to wait until Roberts Bank Terminal 2 is complete also went unanswered.
The Fraser River estuary has lost 85 per cent of its salmon habitat to the effects of development and there are already plans to double the size of the terminal.
MacDuffee described the estuary as an “incredible natural asset” that has economic and environmental value.
“It supports these vibrant ecosystems that people are travelling from all over the world to visit, to see the Salish Sea, to see whales, to see birds, to see these migrations, to see these special places and here we are moving to take this incredible asset and turn it into an industrial sacrifice zone.”
Tanker terminal piles risk on top of risk
Roberts Bank Terminal 2, as the $3.5-billion planned port expansion is known, would increase the port’s container capacity by 50 per cent. The 2020 federal assessment of Roberts Bank Terminal 2 concluded the expansion’s impact on wetland function, Chinook and chum salmon and southern resident killer whales “is high in magnitude, permanent and irreversible.” In 2023, the federal cabinet concluded the public interest in the port expansion superseded those impacts and approved the project, subject to nearly 400 conditions.
In 2025, the Vancouver Port Authority submitted Roberts Bank Terminal 2 to the Major Projects Office, hoping to see it designated a “nation-building project” and fast-tracked for final approvals. That designation would mean streamlined regulatory processes and assessments.
Alberta’s proposal will also be evaluated by the Major Projects Office. The office did not respond to a question about whether the tanker terminal will be assessed to determine the potential cumulative effects of the project on the Fraser River estuary and Salish Sea.
The proposal to add another terminal and introduce oil supertankers to the Fraser estuary is raising concerns amongst B.C. environmentalists.
“This is supercharging the impact in case of an accident,” Anna Barford, Stand.earth’s oceans campaigner, said. “If we have a spill, if there is a critical problem, if one of these ships loses power and runs aground, we’re looking at incredible devastation in an area that is wildly biodiverse … at the mouth of a very important salmon-bearing river.”
Many species rely on the mudflats of Roberts Bank. Environmentalists have long-opposed expanding the terminal due to concerns about the impacts on this delicate ecosystem.
The logistics of bringing such large vessels into the crowded waters of the Salish Sea is also a concern, Barford added.For MacDuffee, the tanker terminal proposal flies in the face of the federal government’s acknowledgement of the Fraser estuary’s importance. With more than $2 million in federal funds, Raincoast has been working to restore salmon habitat degraded by marine infrastructure.
“We’re allowing the flow of water — of nutrients, of sediment, of fish, of everything — back onto Sturgeon Bank, trying to restore the function of this estuary and the opportunity for rearing salmon,” MacDuffee told The Narwhal.
Port expansion poses significant risk to endangered species and critical habitat
Even without adding an oil tanker terminal to the mix, Roberts Bank Terminal 2’s impact on endangered species could be catastrophic, Barford said.
“We’re looking at increased underwater noise, which we know is very difficult for fish and for creatures like southern resident killer whales that use echolocation to find their food.”
More than 100 species in the Fraser River estuary are at risk of local extinction by 2045, a 2022 study found. At-risk species include the southern resident orca, whose population was just 74 individuals as of last year’s census.
Many migrating bird species, including the western sandpiper, could also be negatively impacted by the terminal expansion. During their annual migration from Peru to Alaska, western sandpipers stop in the Fraser estuary, where they fuel up on biofilm, communities of microorganisms that flourish on the estuary’s mudflats. Losing access to this crucial food source would be a significant blow to western sandpipers and the many other migratory bird species.
“Roberts Bank is critical habitat,” Barford said. “Just because it looks muddy … doesn’t mean that it isn’t a paradise for endangered and migratory species.”
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Photo: Ethan Cairns / The Canadian Press
What a week. Amidst the blur of World Cup shenanigans and Canada Day festivities, politicians dropped not one, not two, but three massive pipeline announcements.
First, there was the multibillion-dollar federal commitment for infrastructure projects in B.C. What does this have to do with pipelines, you ask? Well, the agreement also included a promise to maintain the federal oil tanker ban off B.C.’s North Coast and $10 billion to upgrade the Roberts Bank export terminal (that’s the huge shipping terminal you can see from BC Ferries as you approach Tsawwassen, FYI).
That brings us to the second announcement, which came just a few hours later when Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced a plan for a southern route for a new oil pipeline to the West Coast that would largely follow the right-of-way for the Trans Mountain pipeline, except — surprise, surprise! — it would end at Roberts Bank. This theoretical pipeline would be planned and built by the federally owned Trans Mountain Corp., with Pembina Pipeline Corp. taking a 10 per cent stake in construction. Oh, and it would cost between $35 billion and $44 billion (mostly in taxpayer money).
As if that wasn’t enough to process, on Monday Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Smith proposed another pipeline called Northern Shield, which would take oilsands bitumen to refineries in Sarnia, Ont. There’s also no private backer for this pipeline and, notably, no formal federal support. The chief of Aamjiwnaang First Nation, meanwhile, says the nation hasn’t been consulted on the proposal thus far and notes it’s still in the midst of a benzene crisis and dealing with the fallout of a March 2026 pipeline spill.
The headlines have been coming so fast and furious, it’s been tough to keep up. I spent the week scouring the internet, trying to get my head around it all. Some of the most insightful commentary I came across was from Amy Janzwood, an assistant professor in political science and environment at McGill University — so I called her up to pick her brain on, well, all of it.
This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity.
What have you noticed about the pipeline discussion in the media over the last week?
All the media coverage I saw has been stenography, basically. Just regurgitating all of the talking points of [Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim] Hodgson, Carney and Smith. It’s been extremely uncritical coverage. The kind of making of a pipeline out of literally nothing other than taxpayer dollars has been quite dizzying and shocking to see.
The questions I was asked a year ago about pipeline politics are very different than the questions I get now. Before I’d get asked: “What’s the prospect of another major oil pipeline? Is this a political fantasy?” But now there’s a slippage into engaging on the terms of the Smith government. The lack of context I’ve seen in the reporting on this is in part because of the firehose of announcements, and media outlets are just not able to keep up.
Amy Janzwood is an assistant professor in political science and environment at McGill University. She says Canadian governments are overstating the economic benefits of building more pipelines. Photo: Supplied by Amy Janzwood
You have noted before that legacy media often uncritically repeat the narratives of the oil industry. It sounds like you’re still seeing that? Are any particular examples coming to mind?
Hodgson has basically become the voice of the industry and I see that repeated verbatim, without any kind of interrogation. One very clear example I see over and over again is the profitability narrative around the Trans Mountain pipeline when we know this is actually not a profitable pipeline. You could argue there are good reasons to have it and we can have that debate, but [federal politicians] like to say that this is a profitable pipeline, which is straight up not true, so that’s one example of things that I see kind of repeated very uncritically.
Given that it’s not a profitable pipeline, what are the real reasons you think we’re seeing such broad political support for it in this moment?
There has been incredibly powerful messaging from the Carney government that we can have it all. We’ve seen this misconstrual of economic anxiety, sort of pinned on the hopes of another pipeline, which couldn’t be further from the reality.
Pipelines have become kind of a stand-in for the future of oil and gas. It’s become a stand-in for a lot of really difficult conversations.
Canadians are still broadly supportive of climate action and renewable energy, but they’re also more supportive of pipelines now than they have been for at least the last decade. What do you make of that contradiction?
As political scientists, we’ve long known that public opinion can largely be shaped by our political elites. I’m not surprised when I hear things from our prime minister and minister of natural resources around the need to build more pipelines, that there is this slippage or confusion that this is going to reduce our reliance in any way on the U.S. If you’re not following this closely, then that sounds great, if you’re being told this is what we need to keep Canada prosperous and strong.
But as someone who has studied pipelines for over 10 years, those are promises new pipelines will not be able to deliver on. I think the public has largely forgotten the cost and divisiveness about Energy East, about Northern Gateway, about Trans Mountain. Unless you’re directly affected and witnessing and experiencing the impacts of these projects, those costs to you, those environmental risks are not salient. It has long been difficult for folks to make that connection when we’re told this is necessary for our economy, and when the economic benefits are as overstated as they often are.
Canadians are repeatedly told that pipelines are what’s needed to keep Canada prosperous and strong. What are political leaders misrepresenting when they say that?
Fundamentally when we’re talking about major new pipelines, you’re going to need significant greenfield oilsands expansion to fill it. [A greenfield project is a new project built on undeveloped land.] We’ve seen the economics of the oilsands have not been trending towards that for the last several years to decades. Investors in the oilsands were really pressuring companies to deliver on their dividends. There was not an appetite for massive new expansions; it was not economic and it still is not. It would actually harm the industry if they can’t fill the pipeline.
If we’re now talking about a hypothetical West Coast pipeline, the volatility and the reliance on global oil prices and very uncertain demand … there is not a long-term case to be made for increasing oil expansion to the degree that would be required for a major new pipeline.
This is not economic for the industry, so this will be taxpayer-funded.
Amy Janzwood
This is not economic for the industry, so this will be taxpayer-funded. And there’s no certainty about demand for this hypothetical oil that the industry does not seem willing to produce, although Smith has alluded to doing whatever she can to stimulate further oilsands production with additional provincial support.
It’s quite misleading to suggest we would need a new pipeline to diversify away from the U.S. I do think we do need to have important conversations about how to become more resilient in light of having the Trump administration. But spending billions of dollars for a pipeline that we don’t think the industry can fill is not the way to do it.
Politicians also increasingly claim that Canada can indefinitely expand oil and gas production while meeting our climate commitments. Is that actually possible?
The short answer is no. This myth was alive and well under the Trudeau government. The Trudeau government really pioneered this narrative that we can have Trans Mountain and the oil expansion that comes with it and meet our climate targets and use the money from Trans Mountain to pay for the clean energy transition.
The latest iteration of this argument is this promise of carbon capture and storage. My take is that this is something the industry has never really been serious about doing.
Since Pathways Alliance [now called Oil Sands Alliance] announced its carbon capture and storage project in 2022, we’ve seen absolutely no significant investment of any kind in this project. And we know that they’ve just quietly stepped back from the amount of emissions reductions they’re promising.
It’s been quite troubling to see the Carney government so unquestioningly provide this narrative that we can have decarbonized oil — which is, of course, a contradiction.
You have described expanding fossil fuel exports as like saving for retirement by doubling down at the casino. Can you explain why that is?
Let’s not forget that oil and gas is a relatively small part of Canada’s GDP … but looking at the media coverage, you would not know that.
The conversation we’re having right now is a federal government that has continuously found new and ever-creative ways to subsidize fossil fuel expansions, whether that’s LNG [liquefied natural gas], oilsands or carbon capture and storage, and telling the public that this is necessary.
Let’s set aside LNG for now (the economics of LNG are a bit different), but about oil specifically, this is an industry that’s had record profits that’s been unwilling to pay for its own pollution — it is a cost the industry has very successfully avoided, whether that’s orphan wells and cleanup or carbon.
We’re told we need to double down and it’s necessary for economic prosperity. But what we’re seeing is the bill that’s racking up that taxpayers are on the hook for — when there’s an industry that can very well pay for it, and is unwilling to because they know they have a government that will backstop it. They now have a government that will buy a pipeline and that now has a state-owned pipeline company that is promising to be a backer for another new pipeline, which honestly, if you had told me that even 12 months ago, I would not believe you. It is absolutely mind-boggling.
The Narwhal is going to be following all of these issues closely. If you have thoughts or a story tip email editor@thenarwhal.ca
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Canada is getting hit with an AI data centre boom. But resistance is emerging, getting coordinated, and already clocking wins
The post Inside the rising country-wide movement against AI data centres appeared first on The Breach.
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Photo: Leah Hennel / The Narwhal
Summary
- The Alberta government is hoping to attract $100 billion worth of data centres to the province over the next four years. If built, the data centres would require enormous amounts of electricity to operate.
- With a cap on how much electricity data centres can purchase from the provincial grid, most will have to generate their own power by burning natural gas, a fossil fuel.
- A global surge in demand for natural gas plant infrastructure is driving up costs and extending wait-lists, calling into question how realistic Alberta’s data centre ambitions are.
The Alberta government has big ambitions for AI data centres, but those dreams will have to contend with the harsh reality of a heated global competition for electricity.
Around the world, there is a shortage of turbines used in natural gas power plants, as more and more electricity generation is built to feed hungry data centres. Estimates for wait times to obtain the critical components are now upwards of five years. Prices have also increased dramatically.
That has serious implications for Alberta’s plan to attract $100 billion worth of data centres over the next four years, not only in terms of how quickly the facilities can be built, but also at what cost.
As if to drive the point home, the province joined private industry on July 2 for the announcement of the $4.6 billion Greenlight natural gas power plant, which is 2.6 times more expensive than a similar sized power plant completed by the same company two years ago. That plant will feed electricity to a $15 billion Meta data centre.
“We’re definitely seeing the impact of that turbine supply crunch,” Will Noel, senior electricity analyst with the Pembina Institute, says.
These power plants burn natural gas, a source of the potent greenhouse gas methane, to spin turbines that generate electricity. Natural gas power generation accounts for approximately 77 per cent of Alberta’s electricity grid.
The turbine shortage comes on the heels of the province’s overhaul of its electricity market, a move that has stalled power plant investment as companies wait for more certainty before committing. It also follows the government’s crackdown on renewable power generation, which decimated the market for wind and solar in Alberta.
Data centre developers face lengthy waits and a highly competitive process if they want to connect to Alberta’s grid, but can move quickly if they build their own power supply — which the grid operator requires to be natural gas, at least for now.
The operator, in response to questions from The Narwhal, said that’s because developers must be able to meet their power demand at all times.
“Renewables and stand-alone storage are currently excluded because of weather dependency and duration limitations,” a spokesperson said by email. “As of now, they are not qualified to reliably offset a data centre’s around-the-clock draw the way dispatchable gas generation can.”
New technologies could change that, according to the operator.
If the proposed data centres don’t already have their turbines ordered, it’s going to be a long wait.
Noel says we don’t actually know how many of the 41 data centre centre proposals in Alberta as of July 7 have finalized designs and parts on order. It’s also not known if any will eventually connect to the grid.
“This is obviously speculation,” he says, “but I imagine most of these data centres don’t have turbines ordered.”
The global turbine shortage
Across the world, but particularly in the U.S., data centres are being built at a furious pace. That, along with a broader turn to electrification and production challenges, is creating a bottleneck for turbines and additional power plant components.
A report from Bloomberg says the cost of building a natural gas plant in the U.S. increased 66 per cent between 2023 and 2025, while the time it takes to complete construction has increased 23 per cent in the same time period.
The pressure to build and the lack of components is creating bidding wars on turbines and swelling the bottom lines for turbine manufacturers.
GE Vernova, one of the few large-scale turbine suppliers, saw significant growth last year and into 2026, and has a backlog of orders that account for 100 gigawatts of potential power supply. (For reference, that’s nearly one-third of the electricity the entire city of Calgary uses in a year.)
All three of the major turbine suppliers are reporting delays.
That supply crunch has led some data centre developers in the U.S. to go to extreme lengths to get power, including repurposing old jet engines.
Noel calls those fixes “inefficient and very costly,” but notes “the revenue they’re getting from the data centres is outstripping the extra cost, so they’re just kind of doing what they can to get any power on site as fast as possible.”
In Alberta, a power surplus could quickly evaporate
There is nothing to that extent happening in Alberta, which quickly instituted a hard cap on how much power was available to data centres from the existing power grid.
The Alberta government has embraced the AI boom as a way to increase demand for the province’s vast natural gas reserves.
“Jurisdictions that can provide reliable and affordable power will have a serious advantage in attracting investment, and with our vast natural gas resources and mature industrial infrastructure, that is exactly what Alberta can offer,” Premier Danielle Smith said while announcing the recent Greenlight project.
Alberta has capped the amount of electricity that data centres can purchase from the provincial grid, meaning most will have to generate their own energy to power their operations. The province’s grid operator, meanwhile, has mandated that data centres must use natural gas, a fossil fuel, to generate their electricity. Photo: Todd Korol / The Narwhal
The Alberta Electric System Operator, which manages the province’s private grid, allocated 1.2 gigawatts of power for data centres in a competitive process that ended with two developers allowed to tie into the grid.
Another round will dole out additional power and the system operator recently announced data centre developers planning to build their own power plants could temporarily tie into the grid while those plants are being built, up to 1.6 gigawatts.
The operator said by email that the “bridging provision” is a “general mechanism accommodating a time gap (up to three years) between a load being ready to operate and its generation being fully built and in service for any reason.”It is up to the developer to ensure it has the necessary power after that three-year window and if there is a power shortage during those three years, data centres using the bridging provision would be the first to have electricity curtailed.
The province also has a healthy cushion of extra power after a buildout of capacity prior to market reforms and a renewable crackdown. But that won’t necessarily last.
Noel points to the insatiable data centre demand and resulting supply crunch, combined with population growth and increasing electrification as pressures on the system.
“And then we’ve got the old coal plants that were converted to run on gas — those are coming up soon on their end of life,” he says. “So I think mid-2030, if we don’t kind of deal with this now — whether it’s more gas or more renewables or whatever — I think there’s a real possibility that we will go from flush with power to just scraping by again.”
Capital Power’s Genesee Generating Station near Warburg, Alta., was originally fuelled by coal, but now uses natural gas to provide electricity for the province. The Alberta government has embraced the AI boom as a way to increase demand for the province’s vast natural gas reserves. Photo: Don Denton / The Canadian Press
The office of Alberta’s minister of affordability and utilities, RJ Sigurdson, didn’t reply to specific questions about the turbine shortage and its impacts, but said the government prioritizes the “well-being of Albertans” and “will not compromise the reliability or affordability of the electricity that millions of Albertans, Indigenous communities and our local industries depend on.”
The minister’s office said the government “does not prescribe a specific generation technology for powering data centre projects.” It said the decision by the grid operator to limit generation to natural gas at this time is an independent decision by the arm’s length body.
The Alberta Electric System Operator says its role is to ensure the safety and reliability of the grid and it does not track whether private developers have ordered the necessary equipment.
So what does this all mean for Alberta’s AI data centre dream?
The Narwhal reached out to all of the big natural gas generators in the province to see if they were being impacted by turbine delays and cost increases, but received no responses. Emails to two data centre developers, Beacon Data Centers and Synapse, also did not not get a response.
It can be difficult to assess how the various companies could be impacted by the current race for power plant components, but applications to the Alberta Utilities Commission, the regulator for power plants, provide some insight.
Synapse, which hopes to start construction on a data centre near the town of Olds in October, hasn’t disclosed who will build its turbines, but says once final decisions are in place, it could have them on site within a month. It plans to use modular generators, operating alone, before completing construction of a full system while the project is online.
In the company’s application to Alberta Environment and Parks, Synapse says it will use generators from Alberta-based Eco Power Equipment, which specializes in portable gas generators. Eco Power said it doesn’t manufacture turbines.
Another data centre moving through the regulatory process is Beacon Data Centers’ Indus project, southwest of Calgary.
Its application to the regulator shows details on turbine components and has a target of Dec. 31, 2028, for completion of the project, pending approval.
Alberta’s electricity market overhaul stalls investment as companies wait for more certainty
As those projects move through the regulatory process, large electricity generators remain cautious about building new projects to help keep the lights on.
There are also questions about how the data centre boom could impact prices. Premier Smith says the Greenlight project could help bring down transmission costs, which ultimately show up on electricity bills. Noel agrees that’s possible.
But the flip side is increased demand for natural gas and the trickle down of massive cost increases for building power plants could potentially increase electricity or heating bills.
“I think everyone’s kind of sitting and waiting to see how the [restructured electricity market] plays out,” Noel says.
“In 2028 we’ll phase out the old market and bring in the new, and maybe then we’ll start to see investment, but that’s a pretty long time.”
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