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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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A row has broken out at COP29 climate talks as leading countries said a draft deal risked going back on a historic agreement to reduce the use of planet-warming fossil fuels.

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Groups call for protests over countries' role in supplying Israel with nearly 30 percent of its oil

The pipeline transports Azerbaijani crude oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, supplying Israel with 28 percent of its oil imports at a time when Israel is waging war on Gaza and Lebanon.

The pipeline is majority owned by BP, with Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company Socar the second-largest shareholder.

Performative solidarity

Turkish relations with Israel have plummeted since the Gaza war began, (...)

However, Lorne Stockman, the author of a report by advocacy group Oil Change International, which tracked oil shipments to Israel up until July, said that their data sources showed multiple shipments from Ceyhan since May.

“We reached out to our data sources and they are seeing shipments that are registered as having come from the BTC [ Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan] terminus, which is Ceyhan, and arrived in Ashkelon in September and October and November.”

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November 19, 2024

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The paper is here

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The main explanation for continuous underforcasts by IEA, is that their rolodex includes only oil companies, and that's who they ask.

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This post uses a gift link which may have a view count limit. If it runs out, there is an archived copy available

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The Climate Policy Institute attending the UN summit was founded by a state-backed think tank which has received fossil fuel funding.

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I'm not sure their method of assessing ability to respond is quite there — a lot of it is about community-building, and the things they use (eg: spending on shared infrastructure) are very rough proxies for that. Still, it's making an effort in a direction that I haven't seen others do.

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