“Covid was very scary,” said Vojta. “This is more stressful. We have this period of disruption that we’ve never encountered before.”

Investment banking giant JP Morgan has said it is struggling to predict how oil prices will be impacted by the US-Iran war, telling investors in a rare note that "we simply don't know how to model the endgame".

Analysts said with "no clear signals" of the war de-escalating, the assumption that global oil supply disruption was temporary is "becoming increasingly difficult to sustain".

Syria, Guatemala, Portugal, France, Philippines

Iraqi militias strike a pipeline that's the remaining lifeline to Middle East oil and the Houthis move into a better position to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait than ever, having seized lots of weapons and vehicles in Mocha.

It's depleting a bit slower than I feared it would, a few months ago.

Feels like they could do another one or two reserve releases if they wanted, enough to keep things stable ("stable" in the sense of merely a low-grade unending emergency that hurts everyone for a long time rather than a calamitous immediate collapse) for the rest of 2026.

While the war still has no end in sight I would be surprised if it was still going on in 2027. So chances are it'll sort of work out ok-ish in the long run.

The latest IEA oil report shows that oil supply remains disrupted but prices haven't exploded too much because the market is absorbing the shock through inventory drawdowns, hopium and demand destruction.

Demand destruction is a fancy way to say less freight, less industrial activity, fewer flights and higher costs for almost everything. Although there are still billions of barrels in storage, the longer the disruption lasts, the more the economy has to shrink to match the oil supply.

Nikhil Dubey at Kpler said Ukraine’s attacks had knocked out as much as 45 per cent of Russia’s refining capacity, with many of the repairs likely to take months or even years, with western sanctions making importing complex parts challenging for Moscow.

US bombed 80 sites.

An explosion tore through Qatar’s key natural gas export terminal Sunday night as workers tried to resume operations there after Iran bombed it during the war, causing a fire that hurt at least 54 people as another 18 were still missing hours later.

“We are in uncharted territory. I don’t think [shipping in the strait] is getting back to normal this year.”

Mazaar, who is in his late 30s, is the main breadwinner for a large family that includes his one child and many brothers.

He says he became a fuel smuggler three to four months ago when drought meant he was no longer able to farm.

He is among 2.4 million people in Balochistan's population of about 15 million estimated to be involved in fuel smuggling between Iran and Pakistan.

The Middle East is Japan’s main source of crude oil, from which naphtha is extracted and used to make items including printing ink and plastics

Our food system is heavily dependent on plastic packaging to keep everything fresh long enough to sell it.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28. As of May 18th, 2026, it remains shut. The chokehold on global energy and fertilizer supplies keeps expanding through agrifood systems worldwide.

In this special episode of The Work We Do, we discuss the short, medium, and long-term structural policy solutions to the global agrifood impacts of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The person being interviewed here is the chief economist for the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation.

I expect it was this press release that triggered the interview.

Sulphuric acid is a crucial ingredient in the manufacture of batteries, clothing and phosphate fertilisers, and is also used to treat drinking water, purify petroleum, and produce some metals and computer chips.

With gas more than $6 in state, delivery of about 2m barrels is last planned shipment to pass through strait of Hormuz

The average price of a gallon of gas in California already stands at more than $6, but more uncertainty looms as the last oil tanker from the Middle East arrived in the Golden state this week.

The Los Angeles Times reported on Sunday that the New Corolla, which left the Middle East for California before the war broke out, is delivering about 2m barrels of crude oil from Iraq to Long Beach. It was the last planned shipment to pass through the strait of Hormuz.

The California Energy Commission vice-chair, Siva Gunda, told legislators on Tuesday that the state can meet fuel demand for the next six weeks with its current supply.

In 2007, investments in risky US mortgages went sour as homeowners struggled to pay. Funds run by Bear Stearns, BNP Paribas and other banks either had to freeze the ability of investors to take out their money, or liquidate the funds completely.

These problems were the canaries in what proved to be a very deep financial coal mine. As nervousness spread, even banks eventually stopped lending to each other for fear of not getting their money back, creating a so-called "credit crunch". That caused a global financial crisis.

Fast forward to today.

Several funds which lend money have declared losses or restricted investors' ability to take out their money. BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo and Blue Owl have all faced demands for billions of withdrawals from private credit funds - institutions that provide an alternative to traditional banks.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said on Wednesday that the war is costing Europe around 500 million euros ($600m) each day. “Even in a best-case scenario,” he said, “it’s still bad,” adding that EU governments “are very worried” about lasting jet fuel shortages.

In Guyang-ri, a farming village of 70 households about 90 minutes south-east of Seoul, people gather for communal free lunches six days a week. The meals are funded by the village’s one-megawatt solar installation, which generates roughly 10m won ($6,800) in net profit each month.

“Residents eat lunch together every day, so we see each other’s faces, talk together,” says Jeon Joo-young, the village chief. “Bonds and solidarity between residents become much stronger. Life becomes more enjoyable.”

Surging fuel prices and economic turmoil compound the impact of Sudan’s ongoing electricity crisis.