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Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages (abcnews.go.com)

submitted 3 months ago by return2ozma@lemmy.world to c/usa@lemmy.ml

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[–] atzanteol@sh.itjust.works 8 points 3 months ago (2 children)

538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016.

No they didn't. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That's not "had Hillary beating Trump" that's "Hillary was more likely to win than Trump."

[–] JudahBenHur@lemm.ee 4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％

[–] PowerCrazy@lemmy.ml 5 points 3 months ago

It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[–] atzanteol@sh.itjust.works 3 points 3 months ago

It wasn't 100%. It's a forecast not a premonition.

[–] DogPeePoo@lemm.ee 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Sure, Jan

You know how the internet works, right?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩

GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

[–] atzanteol@sh.itjust.works 5 points 3 months ago (1 children)

You know how probability works right? No, of course you don't. Almost nobody does...

[–] Pheonixdown@lemm.ee 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it's time for a grenade.

[–] atzanteol@sh.itjust.works 0 points 3 months ago

Hah! Excellent example. 😆