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Minor Vance win overall since he had lower expectations going in and Walz got that one unfortunate extremely clippable misspeak. Vance refusing to admit Trump lost in 2020 and his Springfield...thing though cost him any chance of a rout, which is basically required for a VP debate to have significant upballot effects. Still the Republicans probably appreciate getting Vance above Sarah Parin and Aaron Burr and getting the media distracted for another day or two.
Yeah, I think the MAGAs will run mostly with the unfortunate garbled school shooter phrase, mostly because the eternally 12 year old bully Donald Trump seems to think it was some sort of fatal gotcha moment and not a facially nonsensical mis-speak. Ironically, I think this will mostly squander some generally skillful sanewashing BS from Vance.
Kamala’s campaign on the other hand will get very good mileage out of the refusal to concede that Trump lost on 2020. Somebody on CNN said it would be the best “campaign ad” moment of the debate.
Overall, it is what it is, and it will be impossible to tell how many people will really be swayed by the debate, but I doubt it’s a particularly large number. In particular, “leave abortion to the states” is unlikely to resonate with women in any state with a Republican legislature, including GA, AZ, and NC.
Yeah, I really think productive rights voters are going to turn out and likely be deciders.