Ukraine

I mean, definitely, that describes their military situation thus far. This guy is qualified enough to know something I don't, too.

It would seem that at some point they'll just straight up have less stuff in Russia than the Russian government is ordering. They've been solving it by squeezing borrowers so far, but they're at credit card levels of interest right now, and you'd assume that lever gets diminishing returns at some point, once people stop bothering with central bank loans entirely.

I have trouble picturing the Putin regime as the kind that can power through hyperinflation and empty shelves on ideological fervour alone. It's pretty greed-based. (They could also do austerity and try to buy less, but so far they've gone for inflationary pressure between the two; it's easier to blame someone else for)