this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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[–] Bremmy@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Absolutely, hope you do the same

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -2 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

And what would I be apologizing for? I made no accusations of you, like you did me.

[–] nomous@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Ah man we need that RemindMe bot so I don't have to set a reminder.

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -2 points 2 months ago

No need to wait.. I already clapped back; see below.

[–] Bremmy@lemmy.ml 0 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Ok great. Show me the lie and we can take it from there.

[–] Bremmy@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

About her poll numbers declining and flat lining. She's only ever been going up and gaining momentum

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

She’s only ever been going up and gaining momentum

Only if you live in an echo-chamber that is built to feed-back to you the things you want to hear instead of looking at actual data. Keep in mind, Trump supporters say the identical thing that you are saying about your candidate, about their candidate

Reality (for GA) (Data accessed, 10/10/24, 20:03:54 UTC, Silver Bullets, and a codeshare link for you to reproduce this figure):

Reality (for NC) :

Reality (for PA) :

Reality check. Harris did have real momentum coming out of the convention. She doesn't have it any longer. The rate of change in her polling has declined across all polls (eg, momentum) and even in some cases gone negative (she's losing ground). Harris was almost universially increasing or maintaining her momentum until about 2 weeks out from the convention. This has changed (as did her campaign strategy and messaging). Harris is no longer on track to win. She is on track to lose if these polling results hold true. As well, these figures are consistent across the swing states.

Florida:

Michigan:

Nevada:

You get the picture, and you have the tools to reproduce these results and come back to reality.

So do I get the apology right now or do I have to wait?

[Addendum: If you need access to Nate Silvers data to reproduce this, I can provide. Alternatively, you can use 538 and recode it a bit. Nates data is generally easier to work with and I'll drop the links below for completeness. I want you to be confident in these results. If you have trouble accessing, let me know.

AZ: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PIfyl.csv

FL: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cjyet.csv

GA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/UsnHS.csv

MI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/aXTQJ.csv

MN: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/9UhVa.csv

NV: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cmRIw.csv

NH: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/3o8Wf.csv

NC: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/dU8Ti.csv

PA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/Jhz1g.csv

TX: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/IRAjD.csv

VA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/TgibS.csv

WI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/8vbx4.csv

]