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we've been pumping money into regime change in Ukraine since the early 90s. NED (National Endowment for Democracy) used to show the dollar figures and specific organizations on their website but deleted that information a while back. You can still find it with Wayback Machine
Essentially we've been funding and supporting organizations in Ukraine under the guise of "pro-Democracy™" "pro-Liberty™" with the goal of supporting any potential chances for regime change. Some of those organizations just happen to be associated with the far-right groups that were part of the initial government that was unconstitutionally appointed In 2014 after Euromaidan- a series of violent protests that forced the pro-Russian president to flee the country.
tldr: we've been destabilizing Ukraine for a long time. the idea was to peel off Ukraine from Russia's orbit and throw it into the US orbit. And it worked. Which is why Russia invaded in 2014
Note before I get the inevitable Russian shill comments - I'm not justifying any aggressive invasion by Russia. I'm saying this is a proxy war - a game of tug of war between two larger powers. Neither care in the slightest about what actually happens to the Ukrainians.
They will not recover from this war for a hundred years. But Lockheed Martin stock will perform nicely
edit: and remember this comment in 15 years. people will be talking as if what I'm saying is obvious. but right now the propaganda is strong- just like in 2003 with invasion of Iraq
How was Ukraine "destabilized" compared to other comparable ex-USSR states until 2014?
If a country being in US orbit is a reason for Russia to attack it, why didn't they attack Finland? Or the US directly in Alaska? What's the significance with Ukraine?
There's none other that Russia thought it was an easy target, breaking the Budapest Memorandum (and later other agreements). The same memorandum btw granted Ukraine non-military aid from the US and France, so the argument that this was somehow a dirty play makes no sense.
see below. Ukraine was in a special position. most similar to Belarus, although much more important. US pumped money in a lot of ex-soviet states, that's true.
Ukraine was under the Russian orbit since the 1700s. It was a fifth of the economic output of the USSR. In the Russian nation-state mythology Kiev is the mother city of all Russians. They share one of the largest borders in the world of mostly plains.
There's a lot of reasons. Russia views Ukraine as theirs. Neither Finland or Alaska hold a fraction of the ideological, historic, and strategic importance to the Russians
go and re-read the 1994 agreement. it does not promise any help at all beyond promising to "seek immediate [UN] Security Council action".
i don't really think it's relevant to the discussion though. international law (aka treaties) are used as justifications when convenient and ignored when not convenient.
Right, what I was getting at was that all the other claims are bullshit, this is a war because winning it would grant Russia strategic advantages, and they thought they'd win the conflict, probably not even expecting a full war; just a three day special operation.
That's why I wrote "granted", I know this is more of a political intentions paper, my point was that nobody can act surprised when a signatory actually follows through later.
One could ask the question why states are choosing to align with countries other than Russia. The answer is that most of Russia's allies get screwed. Look at Armenia's situation with the CSTO.
Russia is a terrible ally and an even worse overlord I'm not arguing against that. It has a brutal history and a brutal people whose cultural DNA goes all the way back to the Mongol hordes pillaging and raping for tribute
yes, they expected Ukraine to fold. So did US intelligence, at least ostensibly.
although at this point, anybody paying attention sees the writing on the wall. Russia has been slowly inching forward all year. They will win unless there is some sort of dramatic change in battlefield dynamics
and US has no intention of allowing Ukraine to win. this is why I see US involvement as cynical. It was never meant to actually help Ukraine. Ukraine has been under Russian orbit for centuries. Throughout the entirety of the Cold War, it was under Russian control.
It does not meaningfully alter the power balance between US and Russia. US is just taking advantage to extract as much as they can out of this war and then when the juice is squeezed out of the lemon, Ukraine will fall under Russian control.
So if Ukraine losing was the point the entire time - what "help" was our help? It wasn't to help the people, prolonging a destructive war only kills more people, destroys more homes, hamstrings economic output for a longer period of time. it will cost over $500B to reconstruct Ukraine (and I guarantee there won't be any lively debates in congress on approving that aid) and Ukrainian demographics are ruined for a century
This is sort of my entire point - the US interests in this war don't line up with the Ukrainian citizen. We want
a) Russia to bleed as much as possible for every inch
b) as much public $$$ as possible to be transferred to private hands
c) battlefield intelligence, both on new technologies and capabilities and on new Russian doctrines (for example drones & EW have been game changers) in preparation for the real war on the horizon
those goals mean the best way to play it is to hurt Ukraine as much as possible. Keep the war going on as long as possible. But never invest enough for Ukraine to win - that would likewise end the war.
It's a very cynical and misanthropic position
No, you're just parroting their BS propaganda.
The constitutionality of the confusing as fuck situation is quite irrelevant (the Rada had the power to do what it did, it did have the votes, but procedure was not necessarily followed properly when disposing of the AWOL president) because there were new elections right after, healing any hiccup. Elections which tanked the results of those far-right parties which weren't exactly impressive in the first place.
Elections which solved a popular uprising caused by the president to renege on the country's path to EU accession. That was the sparking point for the protests, which at that point could've been solved without an erm special electoral operation, but the Russian puppet ordered Berkut to fire on protestors, which those didn't appreciate and consequently failed to calm down and disperse.
After said puppet went AWOL and got disposed and the interim government did nothing much really but organise elections, Poroshenko got elected (yay, another oligarch, as is tradition), trying to solve Russia's invasion (the green men one) militarily. Zelensky pushed him out of office in the next elections, on a peace ticket, as a Russian native speaker... and then Russia invaded even more. They fucking hit Kiev. The Ukrainian army had re-grouped extensively after the little green men operation, the SBU had identified and neutralised gazillions of Russian operatives, either the FSB didn't notice or they didn't want to tell Putin what he didn't want to hear. The rest is taxi memes.
If that -- those totally irrelevant right sector fucks -- is the US's influence in Ukraine then it truly is pitiful. Compare the influence of glorious Europe: Ukraine actually wants to join up!
Lot of text to say "yes it was unconstitutional"
It's impossible to sugar coat what Euromaidan was. Just like Azov, it slowly gets whitewashed because of propaganda. But at its core, it was a series of protests sparked by the Ukrainian far-right that led to an escalating ladder of violence that resulted in a coup. The day after the new government was appointed, it immediately bent the knee to the CIA. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html
https://jacobin.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-russia-nato-crimea
This war, for all intents and purposes, is a proxy war between US and Russia. US decides Ukrainian policy. US is the largest funder of this war. US gets to appoint Ukrainian politicians https://www.reuters.com/article/world/leaked-audio-reveals-embarrassing-us-exchange-on-ukraine-eu-idUSBREA1601K/
US has a long history of meddling in Ukraine https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/11/covert-operation-ukrainian-independence-haunts-cia-00029968
just because I refuse to drink one side's kool aid does not mean I drink the other side's. i'm an individual with imperfect knowledge doing my best to reach the closest thing to truth i can with the information i have available. you can attack me all you want, but i don't really see how you addressed anything in your comment except : "the unconstitutional coup was justified because of popular support and so it doesn't matter that it was illegal & you denounce the idea that the US has influence in Ukraine"
LMFAO so if, say, Scholz says to Macron "I don't think Trump should be US president, he's not suitable, Harris is a much better option" then it necessarily follows that the EU is controlling US politics.
No you aren't, or you wouldn't just take those "US appoints Ukrainian politicians" talking points at face value. You'd use your own head and assess for yourself what that tape means.
it's a coincidence the guy they decided on just happened to be the guy who ended up being Prime Minister for two terms, right?
like i said in my original comment. it's an interesting phenomenon. if you were to look in the past, it's very easy to convince people the US acted covertly in many ways that were clearly imperialist. for example in Guatemala or Cuba or Iraq. It's hard to find someone trying to defend US actions in these cases. But as it's happening that goes out the window because propaganda has a powerful hold on emotion
Let's take a step back and let me ask you a question. Please answer instead of diverting or otherwise trying to deflect
Question is: Do you believe money holds influence in US elections and do you think people with money actively try and influence elections?
One of those being the interim guy and the other not being complete, getting fired because lacking a majority. All in all he served two years of a usual five-year term. You're embellishing some things, and discounting others, to reinforce your conclusion.
And, no, of course it's not a coincidence: Nuland is a politician. The parliamentarians in the Rada are politicians. The Rada ended up electing Yatsenyuk as a suitable interim prime minister because they judged him to be. And so did Nuland.
And I agree with that assessment: While Klitschko is absolutely popular and without doubt honourable, he's not as politically savvy. Yatsenyuk was the better pick. Klitschko is also a Hamburger, as such if I were partisan here he'd have been my first pick.
You shouldn't be terribly surprised if politicians from different places come to similar or identical conclusions. That's not coincidence or conspiracy, but confluence. Like minds think alike.
Of fucking course they do. Different question: Do you really think that a couple of millions from the National Endowment for Democracy have influence that can overpower Ukraine's own oligarchs or people? If you think so, please have a look at the net worth of Poroshenko, the guy who became president next. Traditionally, in Ukraine the filthy rich become politicians because that comes with immunity from prosecution. It was a proper oligarchy, not the smoke-and-mirror highly financialised US one or Russia, which isn't an oligarchy: There, a central figures allows loyal viceroys to amass wealth, all the power emanates from the Tsar, not the money.
Yet another angle: The Russians weren't able to successfully influence Ukrainian politics to their liking. Why, then, should the US have been able to? The US invested way less and also cares less.
Then, last thing: Why, with all those holes, is this thrown around as smoking gun evidence? Who benefits?
Ok, I think now we're getting somewhere - you're engaging in good faith and I appreciate that. Let's go over the money pumped into Ukraine
From independence in 1991 to 2014, the total value was not a couple million. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2014/mar/19/facebook-posts/united-states-spent-5-billion-ukraine-anti-governm/
We're talking in the range of billions. Roughly $200M a year. That's a lot of money for a country as poor as Ukraine.
Second, there's likely a lot of money that was sent covertly. The reason NED was founded was just to simplify the process of funding US interests in foreign countries. Before, you would have to have the CIA create a series of intermediary steps to try and obfuscate the source of funds. For example, to bring it back to Guatemala - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Guatemalan_coup_d'%C3%A9tat#Operation_PBSuccess
With NED, you don't need to spend the manpower and money to set up these complex systems of obfuscation. All of the sources are deemed "legitimate" and therefore you can send openly without incriminating yourself. This is cheaper and simpler.
This goes back to the quote by the founder of NED- Allen Weinstein "A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA."
But that's the thing- CIA still exists and still covertly funds individuals and organizations. However, these days (post-NED) they only fund those that would be unacceptable for the US government to be attached to. For example, "Operation Cyclone" in Afghanistan or "Timber Sycamore Program" in Syria. In both these cases, as CIA was working their magic, NED was also funding US interests in those countries in parallel.
Open "legitimate" funding - NED
Covert items US doesn't wanna be openly associated with - CIA
They work as a team, both with the mutual goal of advancing US interests
Once again, US has a history of trying to destabilize Ukraine that goes back all the way to the start of Cold War. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/11/covert-operation-ukrainian-independence-haunts-cia-00029968
So to conclude:
I'll make some claims and please tell me if we agree on them (I believe we will, because you agree $$$ influences democracy)
NED is a tool to advance US interests through funds injection
NED (along with some other US organizations seeking similar goals) openly pumped quite a lot of money into Ukraine.
CIA has a history of covertly funding US interests, and also in parallel with NED funding
CIA has a history of involvement in Ukraine
So, those 4 statements, I believe are facts. I made no conclusions, simply stated facts. From those facts, I believe it's enough smoke to assume there is fire. You can say there are many holes, and that is fine. Two people can look at the same series of facts and come to different conclusions.
But I think when looking at the following fact in connection with the previous
Starts to fill in a pattern. Remember Occam's Razor. What's simplest is probably what is true.
To conclude my comment- can we at least agree mutually that US attempted to influence Ukrainian democracy? Maybe they were impotent and the radical coup in 2014 was a totally independent movement totally separate from any US influence. It was just a coincidence that the coup led to a pro-US government.
But can we at least agree on the above- US uses $$$ as a tool to advance their interests and they tried this in Ukraine?
That's less than Germany gives Palestine each year and Palestine is vastly smaller. 200M are about five bucks per Ukrainian, per year. That's five litres of milk. A not entirely shabby bottle of wine. Five bucks a year are about 40ct a month, or about 1/1250th of the average Ukrainian wage. You can get a metro ticket for that. And how much of that was even spent in Ukraine itself, as opposed to paying people in America to decide what to do with the money.
Ukraine is Europe-poor, not Africa-poor. It's a fully developed and industrialised country. 200M is ballpark Poroshenko's yearly increase in wealth while in power. Not, mind you, all of it ill-begotten (by capitalist standards) he does produce some fine chocolate.
Not what I said. I said that politics can be bought, not that all money buys politics, or that all politics is bought. On top of that it's not always a bad thing, say funnelling some money to an NGO or newspaper keen on exposing corruption.
She's a witch, she did it!
Occam's razor cannot account for leaving out context, for data not considered, for tunnel vision. If you're only reductionist enough you can use it to justify absolutely any conclusion.
WTH is "pro-US" supposed to mean. I'm not aware of Poroshenko selling state-owned enterprises to US corporate interest or such for way below value, that would the the usual thing to look out for.
That's pretty sad. I don't understand why we play with so many millions of lives as if it's all one just big game. Thank you for the through reply.
agree. the regular people are always the ones that will end up suffering. lockheed martin shareholders got to enjoy a 30% spike in their holdings after feb 2022. hundreds of thousands of ukrainians lost family members, had to flee their homes, lost limbs, many died/will die, etc
i view geopolitics almost like i do tectonic plates. every once in a while when there are shifts, earthquakes happen. I think the Ukraine war is the small earthquake that always happens right before the big one.
to make more WW2 analogies
spanish civil war & italian invasion of ethiopia ~=~ ukraine proxy war & israel/gaza/lebanon/iran situation
rise of fascists across europe ~=~ rise of the new pseudo-fascists in US & Europe & really all over the world (look at Argentina, India, etc)