this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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The Arctic Could Be Functionally Ice-Free in Just a Few Years (www.scientificamerican.com)
submitted 21 hours ago by ButtKiss@lemmy.dbzer0.com to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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The Arctic is likely to become “ice-free” by midcentury—and could pass that grim milestone much sooner unless much more is done to combat climate change

Well, good luck with that.

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[–] silence7@slrpnk.net 6 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

His actual statement:

He added: “Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75% chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years.”

Gore cited findings from climatologist Dr Wieslav Maslowski, a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School (here).

However, it appears he mis-stated the forecast, according to reporting at the time.

In an interview with The Times published on Dec. 15, 2009 (here), Dr Maslowski said: “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

According to the report, Gore’s office acknowledged after his speech that the 75% figure was used by Dr Maslowski as a “ballpark figure” in a conversation with the vice president several years before COP15.