this post was submitted on 31 Dec 2024
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Not merely a corrupt and dysfunctional state, but a narco-trafficking cartel. The Taliban's war on the US occupation is fundamentally a Drug War against local cartel bosses spearheaded by a radical ideological movement. Its the same radical ideology that powered Indochinese Maoists during the 20th century and Prohibitionist/Abolitionist Americans during the 18th century.
The strict religious ideology of the Taliban is pitted against the rampant lawless violence and sexual abuse popular among the Northern Alliance cartels that the US has been supporting since the 1970s. It's not entirely unlike the shitty American Two-Party System. Your options are far-right religious zealotry or shameless money obsessed corporate sellouts. Except, instead of playing tug-of-war at the ballot box, they're outright bombing and shelling one another.
Very hard to talk about the Taliban without talking about how much of the country was obliterated by American marines and artillery for the crime of living in proximity of a Taliban sympathist or ideologue.
How many women were torn to shreds by shrapnel or immolated in the flames of a fuel bomb? How many starved to death under siege or were kidnapped as spoils of war by mercenaries? How many became insurgents themselves, after watching family, friends, and loved ones butchered or press-ganged into the poppy fields by occupying armies?
The final stroke by the departing American army was to walk away with the nation's foreign currency reserves and plunge eastern end of the country into the same famine that had plagued the west for decades. Now the only place Afghanis can turn for outside aid is like-minded Islamists in Pakistan and Turkmenistan or the secularists across the border in Communist China.
The "best" you can hope for in this scenario is Afghanistan aligning with America's largest geopolitical rivals.
Asking why Afghanis would submit to Taliban rule really ignores how the Taliban managed to preserver and recover a popular mandate after twenty years of US occupation. In this case, they were literally the lesser of two evils. But how much evil can the country endure over the long term? Idk. That's what really remains to be seen.
In the end, we could be looking at a mass depopulation event like what we've seen across North Africa, the Levant, and the Saudi Peninsula.