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this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2024
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politics
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2020:
Biden - 81.2 million
Trump - 74.2 million
2024:
Harris: 75 million
Trump: 77.3 million
Even if we assume Trump took all 3 million extra votes from Biden's 2020 voters, there are still 3 million Biden 2020 voters who didn't turn out for Harris. They cared enough to vote against Trump the 2nd time, just not this time.
Anyway, you are right in the sense that those few million likely wouldn't have tipped the election anyway. You are dead wrong that they don't matter. Completely counterproductive lesson to take from the election
You assume that those numbers are people who are left leaning, but as the research from the last election cycle showed, almost 80% are either consistently voting or consistently don't, and the rest are roughly evenly spread.
Interesting link! Weird takeaway though. For one, it's 67% consistently voting or not, 2/3 vs 4/5 is a big difference. Second, look at 2020. People who didn't usually vote were most likely to vote then and they swayed dem. Probably because Trump was bad enough to make them more passionate about voting.
This shows that about a third of voters are intermittent and therefore available if people get them excited enough. I'm not saying it's a good thing (it's not), I'm just saying it's a thing. Acting like they're not important is turning your back on the people who could ultimately sway elections.
And that's before we think about how many of the consistent non voters are apathetic vs how many just don't have anyone they feel represents them.