this post was submitted on 16 Jan 2025
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I'm guessing the point is that those armies are prepared for "WWII" style combat and not the cyberpunk drone-infestation that is the current war the Ukrainians are fighting.
The opposite is true. The fighting in Ukraine is retarded WWII combat but with drones being the artillery's smaller and (slightly - or for Russians: much more) precise sister. But exactly nobody but Russia (and Ukrainians mostly trained to the same (non-)standard back then) would fight an artillery based trench war in the first place in this day and age.
Contrary to the tales people tell this is NOT a modern war. It's obsolete bullshit caused by the inability of both sides to do better (Russians can't anyway and Ukraine is usually lacking equipment so hard that they can only move very slowly). Yes drones are a thing. And they will stay a thing in the future. But not like in Ukraine because that static fight with lackluster air-defense on both sides is very unique indeed.
Thank you for your opinion.
Do you know of any experts, perhaps like Anders Puck Nielsen, who agrees with you?
https://www.anderspucknielsen.dk/ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8_NHuItXHY
... and all those military research organizations that are saying we need to change how we thought modern wars would be fought?
https://researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/occasional-papers/drones-modern-warfare
We constantly rethink how modern wars will be fought. That's a given. We should not however pretend that Ukraine is the model for the next one. Some aspects of it? Sure. Russia is giving us a useful live demonstration of their EW capabilties for example.
Realistically expecting a static artillery war however is rediculous. That's the result of Ukraine not having the equipment (and needing time to train soldiers for the new equipment they got from the west). So Russia had half a year to mine the shit out of newly occupied territory while digging a million trenches. Also the result of having a tiny and old air force compared to NATO forces and no chance to get any form of air control (and yes, we have actually seen in other theaters how well air-defense bought from Russia fares in reality).
You are probably also assuming we need to learn to defend against masses of cheap drones for years to come? Well, we don't. Because there is no scenario with drones being launched against us over year as the sane reaction is a counter attack on the launch sites (again a very Ukraine-specific problem as they lacked equipment to do so, then the permission to use them deep inside Russia, and thus needed to develop stuff able to do so from scratch while at war).
Read up on the UK Ukraine deal signed today? Anything about drones in it you reacted to?
Its something pretty oblivious, or do you need a expert opinion to believe that Ukraine can't rival the US military?
Ai and Drones change the way of war but any real NATO conflict will be nothing like the War in Ukraine.
Just look at how many Warship where sunk by the Houthis and compare that to the Ukraine.
So how do you expect modern war between similarly strong forces to go differently without either side gaining air superiority?
The moment you cannot move fast, digging in is the obvious choice.
In fact I don't expect any side without air superiority. We have seen how well Russian-made air-defense works against modern NATO equipment in other theaters. We also have seen how well it actually works in Ukraine/Russia against missiles or even cheap drones (to the point that Russia "intercepting missiles" with the intended target has become a meme).
Russia had more than half a year to dig in and build a billion trenches in their newly occupied territory because Ukraine lacked the equipment, lacked the soldiers (especially those trained on new western equipment that took far to long to get there) and even today still lacks the air forces to heavy pressure those fortifications.
On the other hand we have also seen the incredible success of Ukraine when applying modern mobile tactics in areas where they did not have that time.
So why would I expect a static, artillery heavy trench warfare without much air support?
digging in with equipment that can defend you is a lot different than digging in without it ..
I wonder if we are going to see the re-introduction of gun SHORAD systems. They have been phased out or just not really developed since the 70s/80s, and cheap drones are expensive to kill with missiles. Especially if they don't emit enough heat for heatseekers and are too small and low to the ground for radar homing ones.
Skyranger has already been bought by Germany, Denmark and Austria, with Hungary, Lithuania and the US being interessted. The German IFV Puma has also been given the ability to use its main gun against drones. So it seems like a lot of countries are very interessted in it. There are also laser based systems.