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Tech's Dumbest Mistake: Why Firing Programmers for AI Will Destroy Everything
(defragzone.substack.com)
this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2025
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Technology
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Companies that are incompetently led will fail and companies that integrate new AI tools in a productive and useful manner will succeed.
Worrying about AI replacing coders is pointless. Anyone who writes code for a living understands the limitations that these models have. It isn't going to replace humans for quite a long time.
Language models are hitting some hard limitations and were unlikely to see improvements continue at the same pace.
Transformers, Mixture of Experts and some training efficiency breakthroughs all happened around the same time which gave the impression of an AI explosion but the current models are essentially taking advantage of everything and we're seeing pretty strong diminishing returns on larger training sets.
So language models, absent a new revolutionary breakthrough, are largely as good as they're going to get for the foreseeable future.
They're not replacing software engineers, at best they're slightly more advanced syntax checkers/LSPs. They may help with junior developer level tasks like refactoring or debugging... but they're not designing applications.