this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2025
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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No one will experience a better climate than today (lemm.ee)
submitted 5 days ago by ujeenator@lemm.ee to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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No one alive will experience a better climate than we have today. But young people will experience a much more dangerous and chaotic world in the future.

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[–] Beastimus@slrpnk.net 4 points 4 days ago (1 children)

We're probably not heading into over 4.8 though. Probable outcomes are between 2.5 and 3.5 (both of which are horrific.)

[–] rekabis@lemmy.ca 5 points 3 days ago (2 children)

We're probably not heading into over 4.8 though. Probable outcomes are between 2.5 and 3.5 (both of which are horrific.)

Unfortunately, that kind of thinking is badly out of date, and no longer in line with the evidence.

Spoiler alert: it’s much, much worse than that.

[–] cows_are_underrated@feddit.org 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

If you add up the current CO2 level of 424ppm, the effect of CH4 and the other greenhouse gases (+100ppm), and the effect of “albedo dimming” (+100ppm). Then we are at a level of +624ppm(CO2e).

That’s about +6.5°C over baseline according to the paleoclimate record. The one that mainstream climate science DOESN’T use to calibrate CO2 levels to global temperatures from but that their “new numbers” for climate sensitivity are starting to match.

If the Rate of Warming follows the pattern of the last few years. Then La Nina years should warm about +0.1°C per year. With “spikes” during El Nino years of +0.2°C up to +0.4°C PER YEAR.

With 2 El Nino’s per decade and about 6 La Nina years we may be looking at a RoW of roughly +1.2°C of warming PER DECADE now.

Guess I'm going to kill myself. This shit is fucked up.

[–] someacnt@sh.itjust.works 2 points 3 days ago (1 children)

How should I kill myself, any recommendations?

[–] cows_are_underrated@feddit.org 0 points 3 days ago

If you wait long enough climate change will do it for you.

[–] Beastimus@slrpnk.net 1 points 3 days ago

Ok, correct me if I'm wrong, but this guy doesn't seem to have any credentials, which seems like a huge red flag to me. Especially since he spends a lot of this article shitting on mainstream climate science. I don't know enough about climate science to know whether this is actually bunk, which is deeply distressing to me.

But either 1, its legit and we're headed for the literal end of the world (not as we know it, like, all life goes extinct in the scenario he poses, there is nothing left).

Or 2, its not legit and we're headed for the end of the world as we know it and the deaths of a distressingly large amount of the human population.

Either way, I'm going to be doing all the same things, and we all need to do all the things we'd do if we were heading for 6.5 as if we were heading for 3, this doesn't change anything to me, and it certainly doesn't change anything in the minds of the biggest polluters..