this post was submitted on 18 Feb 2025
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This quote from a political scientist they interview for the article is one of the most baffling statements I've seen in a while. I keep staring at it.
It is simultaneously nonsensical and the essence of "this explains a lot".
Even some of us in Australia could see it coming. Back in 2023, one of our former PMs interviewed a member of a CIA taskforce that had created a predictive model for civil wars. Normally it's used on other countries, but they tried applying it to the US and you can guess what the results were.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/americas-coming-civil-war/id1674095396?i=1000626742633 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0MVeiDPgEtLRMsg3kMHV2K https://www.audible.com.au/podcast/Americas-coming-civil-war/B0CH8QQ4N2
Yeah, Americans are very keen on the idea that the situation will resolve violently through civil war (or revolution).
I'm skeptical. More likely they will quietly submit, as they have so far. Non-US countries should consider the entirety of the US a hostile regime until I'm proven wrong, the same way they do with Russia or Belarus.
Honestly, with the way Musk is tearing through departments and the cybersecurity threat his team poses, none of the US's allies (e.g. Australia) should be sharing intelligence with the US any more. If we're smart, we should be treating the US as having been compromised by hostile foreign powers.
I'd forgotten that episode. Time for a relisten, Turnbull has done a good job with that podcast.
He probably needs another host though, someone else to bounce off to liven him up a little.
I heard Shorten is about to become quite a lot less busy....
They searched the world for clues of downfall by authoritarian fascism but ended up right back at home.
I think they're just kind of fucking stupid.
While the situation in the US is indeed very dire, I would say that places like Hungary did fall first. I am also afraid that the US wount be the last to fall. Many countries in Europe are shaky at the moment.
Oh, it absolutely won't be the last, but the source was always in the US (via Russia, perhaps). European fascists recently held a summit and the standout quote, from Marine LePen, no less, was "Donald Trump has shown us the way, and the way is strength". Orban said that "The Trump tornado changed everything, yesterday we were outcasts, today we're mainstream".
The rise of the far right worldwide is in no small part driven by US social media profiting and enabling the grotesque drive of misinformation and radicalization that was deployed first in the nromalization of the Tea Party and the justification of the war on terror nonsense and then weaponized during Brexit in the UK.
It was always going to be the US first. And with US backing as a wealthier hostile actor, others will likely follow. Keep an eye on Germany to see if the US implosion acts as a driver or a deterrent. Not everywhere will behave the same, but the dominoes are thudding down now.
And all of this comes down to the last US election. As far as I'm concerned, anybody who could have voted for Harris and didn't is a fifth-columnist, as is anybody who could vote for a non-fascist party with representation in Europe and doesn't.
I wonder if this is will be the end of Germany and France's 70 years long alliance.
There's a scenario where it's still not and it's somehow worse.