this post was submitted on 03 Mar 2025
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In 4 of the 7 key states, Harris received more votes than Biden did in 2020. In the 3 where she received less, Trump still would have won based on how many more votes he got even if Harris's vote count was unchanged compared to Biden in 2020.
This "Democrats lost because of Gaza" angle is convenient. Both sides like it use it. "Moderates" like to blame the "far left" for discouraging voters by calling out the inaction on the genocide. Leftists blame the moderates because they refused to actually denounce the genocide or commit to stopping it. Both side's arguments are based in assumptions that do not bear out once you look at the actual votes.
I mean a whole lot of voters did put the biggest reason they sat out as Gaza. There was a poll on it by YouGov. Now let's not get that wrong; Harris lost because her campaign was a shitshow, so blaming Gaza voters in particular is improductive, but even with a moderately good candidate it would've probably been close as they would've had to win without Michigan and Arizona.