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Danielle Smith is Mark Carney's secret weapon
(www.nationalobserver.com)
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This is the data from the 2023 provincial election, so I guess that depends on what exodus you're referring to.
Considering the NDP only needs to flip 6 ridings for an AB majority, and there are at least 6 to flip in Calgary, and that Nenshi is the leader of the NDP now... I think AB will likely see an NDP government next time based on that math alone. Smith being a fucking national embarrassment is just the icing on the cake.
I'm an old guy so I get it. Also there is a narrative about AB at a national level that's hard to shake.
Flipping (the ideally located) 1380 votes in AB in 2023 would have produced an NDP majority. I don't think Canada really understands the razors Edge that AB sits on.