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If Trump goes down via something like the 25th amendment, or like, assassination, I can see the base rallying around Vance. But left to their own devices to pick a successor? Idk. The whole "Trump 2028" meme, as much as it's supposed to "trigger the libs," kinda shows a lack of confidence or at least excitement regarding Vance, and I can envision a contested primary, especially as things continue going towards shit and they have to find someone or something to blame.
Personally, I suspect that we've entered a period of one term presidents. There are systemic issues that will cause things to continue to get worse regardless of who's in charge (barring radical change) and at the modern pace of discourse, four years feels like an eternity.