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I feel like shorting nasdaq. What should I do?
(sh.itjust.works)
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I definitely think you could see a temporary drop, for sure, because of the economy. But I would not want to bet on just how deep it would be, and how quickly it will end.
Remember 2020 when they shut the entire economy down? The stock market temporarily went into freefall, and then the Fed came out with the freaking bazooka and sent it right the heck back up. Well, that and the stimulus checks.
Covid was a black swan event, so no one envisioned both the lockdown and Fed intervention. There is no way it was priced in.
On the other hand, Fed lowering rates has already been talked about for years. High probability it was priced in.
I actually think covid short circuited a correction that was overdue. Covid provided an excuse for irrational exuberance along with the stimulus.