this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2023
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[–] fri@compuverse.uk 6 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I never understood why in the 100-door case, the host opens 98 doors, and not just one door. That feels like changing the rules.

I fully understand the original problem with 3 doors; I know the win probability is 2/3 if you change. But whenever I hear the explanation for 100 doors case, it just made everything confusing. By opening 98 doors, it feels like the host wants you to switch to the other door. In 3 doors case it's more natural.

[–] Natanael@slrpnk.net 13 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Because the problem is explicitly about the choice between two doors. You have to eliminate all but two choices.

But even then, you'd still have a better chance by switching.

Your intuition about the change is the whole point - it exposes why the result is what it is.

[–] TheEntity@kbin.social 9 points 1 year ago

In both cases the host opens every door but one.