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this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2026
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As far as I can tell Trump is in no position to end this. He can only admit defeat or negotiate on Irans terms, because by controlling global trade, they control the terms.
Also, afaik, oil prices should only just now start reacting materially to the previous month of events. The price shifts we've seen were preemptive. So buckle up ice vehicle drivers.
What we can see is that the war machine has moved a significant number of bombers and personal into the region. What exactly they hope to accomplish with this... Far less clear.
Iran can fairly easily mine the main channel of the straight. Mine clearing is a slow tedious exercise, and I'm not sure it's ever been done under the threat of shahed before. Even if the US managed to both invade, and hold Kharg island, it's own dubious speculation, it wouldn't matter because you still couldn't get the oil out of the straight.
Alternatively, if Iran is able to maintain production of missiles and drones, which isn't clear right now, but suggest they can; if they can get material support to the Houthis, then there is a clear path to them winning this war.
Israel, fundamentally has the same flaws to it's doctrine as the US. The highest of high tech, never commit troops until it's basically a walk through rubble, battlefield omniscience, and total air supremacy. The key here, is that the Israeli aren't willing to themselves due to support their military objectives.
If the US leaves the region, and Iran controls the Hormuz while the Houthis control the Bab al Mandeb... Israels supply lines are massively cut off. And I do think if you see the US leave the region, you see the GCC countries, maybe only one or two at first, capitulate to Iran as the new master of the region. Then it becomes a competition between Israel and Iran, and without the US supplying them, Israel is cooked.