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this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2026
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I'm loving the Ukrainian military having a huge advantage right now, but I'm wary that this advantage will only last until the Russians figure out some kind of countermeasures.
The russian military absolutely will develop counters that even the power imbalance some, I think Ukrainian military officials have said they forecast Ukraine has about 6 months of this general status quo to take advantage of.
While this is true, there are material, industrial differences that have swung in Ukraine's favor that will not swing back in russia's favor.
Ukraine's 155mm artillery production of howitzers and ammunition is one of the largest per month in the world, this was not true a couple of years ago, this fundamentally changes the calculus in Ukraine's favor.
Russia's aviation industry is for the most part in general collapse and decay.
Russia has already sent everybody who was valuable to die on the frontlines, they just don't have that many skilled personnel with actual experience left alive.
Ukraine's drone production outpaces russia.
Ukraine can actually protect its armored vehicle crews and infantry alive, russia cannot figure out how, this creates an ever snowballing disparity in skill in favor of Ukraine.