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this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2026
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I guess it's all a question of how thoroughly Ukraine can cut off supplies to eastern Kherson and if they're able to cross the river (or push south in Zaporizhzhia, but that seems less likely given the fortifications)
If they can manage that and cut off the land bridge then Crimea is probably a foregone conclusion, similar to western Kherson years ago.
But cutting off the land bridge seems like a big IF.