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this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2026
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Ukraine has chased russia out of the sea, how can Crimea be defended at a strategic level by russia now?
It requires naval power which russia is currently hemorrhaging.
Don't forget Turkey occupies a good 90 degrees of rotation about a central point in Crimea, in the realm of electronic warfare this is where the beachhead is, the weakest exposed salient by far.
Russia can have zero confidence about what lurks in the Black Sea to the south and multiple nations fly surveillance, electronic warfare and other intelligence gathering aircraft (manned and unmanned) along that 90 degree arc.
Don't get me wrong. I hope you're right. But doesn't that vulnerability also then apply to Ukraine if they take Crimea?
Just look at the geography yourself, you can see that possessing Crimea does not significantly increase Ukraine's exposure in terms of how many degrees of rotation about a point on Ukraine's coastline to unknown Electronics Warfare and Signals Intelligence assets Ukraine is vulnerable to looking south.
For russia however, what was before a large continental expanse approaching a sea from a restricted set of angles is now essentially a problem of protecting a island with a huge degree of unknowables surrounding it.
Also Ukraine doesn't have nearly as many enemies as russia does....