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First, I help you see why Von der Leyen’s quote is nonsense (the third package was indeed in fact, not draining the economy, since 17 more were needed after that). And the obviously ultimate goal of the sanctions, aka ending the war is still not in sight…
or do you really think just making things a little more shitty for ordinary Russians while the war continues to take Ukrainian lives is the goal? (Really, answer this question, I have answered yours).
I said I have seen things like this said before, and I show you literally multiple times when these things have been said before. Whether that’s an official report or a news article is irrelevant. They have been said before in a public place.
And the point is: I don’t believe them. I don’t believe the clickbait titles. That’s the entire fucking point, you dumbass. I literally said I’ll believe it when I see it. And in your head you have made that into that I somehow believe the clickbait? You’re even dumber than I thought.
And I never said it was the Kiel Institute who said such things in the past. I was obviously talking about this one. How’s that flying pink elephant doing up there?
Ok, let's start from the very very beginning.
"are draining" is in the present progressive. It denotes an action in progress, not a completed action. Meaning the sanctions were in the process of draining the economy. Von der Leyen's claim was not that the draining had completed but that it was in progress.
next is your complete lack of understanding of how sanctions work.
The very first sanctions package was immediately called "first sanctions package" at the time
The understanding, from the very first sanctions package, was that this would be a continuous process, with sanctions package after sanctions package, not a one and done deal that then needs to haphazardly be amended as you seem to think.
Sanctions need to be amended as the economic reality shifts and loopholes need to be plugged as the target of sanctions finds ways to evade them.
The 17 packages after the third were always going to happen because that is fundamentally how sanctions work.
And let's look at numbers. European sanctions have reduced Russian fossil fuel export revenues by about $300-500 million per day. Not sure how you would describe this, other than "draining the economy". And this does not include any other sanctions affecting other parts of the economy.
In your favourite metric, ballistic missiles, that is worth about 750-1000 Iskanders per day given the $400-500k unit production cost. Now of course money isn't the biggest limiting factor in Russia's ability to manufacture those, it's largely parts availability that leads to big fluctuations in production quantities. Parts availabilities, which, surprise, are limited due to sanctions.
Strawman. "draining the economy" is not about making things a little more shitty for ordinary Russians. It's about reducing Russia's ability to finance the war, which takes time considering Russia had a $600 billion war chest, half of which is frozen in mostly European banks, thanks to the sanctions, and the other half is now, thanks to the sanctions, that were draining the economy, mostly drained. And it is about reducing Russia's ability to source industrial machines and components to reduce their ability to manufacture weapons, like your favourite one, the ballistic missile. Where production quantities, as mentioned above, are fluctuating due to sanctions.
As I have stated before, it was constantly repeated all the way back in 2022 that sanctions would not defeat Russia on their own, and certainly not immediately, and would take years. The point was, from the very beginning, to make it increasingly difficult for Russia to finance the war and to produce weapons, so Ukraine could gain the upper hand, which is now manifesting on the battlefield, after years, as predicted.
People like you were told in at the very start in 2022 that the real world doesn't work like TikTok instant gratification, and here you are more than 4 years later still not having gotten the point.
Indeed present progressive.
As in the sanctions that we have applied in the present are working to progressively drain the economy.
If the three sanctions packages were already draining the economy why oh why did she need 17 more? She didn’t say will be draining after we implement 17 more. If you say “are draining” you’re talking about what you have already done to set a process in motion and not what you’re planning to do. How hard is it? You really keep swinging and missing.
And if you had actually read this article from 2024, which we talked about extensively, you would have known that the Russian economy was in fact not being drained at all.
It also has nothing to do with the fact that I don’t understand how sanctions work. Everyone knows that loopholes have to be closed. I don’t need a mansplainy “explanation” of something that is completely obvious.
For the umpteenth time, that was not the three sanctions packages. Learn the meaning of the word “are”.
Maybe quote the entire sentence if you’re gonna cry strawman. Now you’ve created one of your own.
Just let the war keep festering then for longer? You still can’t answer the question because you know you’re wrong.
Dumbass still doesn’t understand what “I’ll believe it when I see it” means... Maybe look up a phrase before you start commenting if you don’t understand it? What I’m saying is the opposite of instant gratification, you dunce. And I’ve never been on TikTok.
1 hole in a bucket drains the bucket 3 drain it faster, so why do you need 17 more? because holes can be plugged and 20 drain it faster than 3. Are you really this fucking stupid?
Questions are forbidden, as I’ve heard. But to answer your question, I’m very positive I’m far more intelligent than you.
So how do you explain this: https://www.russiamatters.org/node/35164 ?
And you don’t need to ask me whether I’m stupid if you really think the first three packages were sufficient to drain the Russian economy, you naive fool.
Then where did their $300 billion war chest drain to dumbass? Already addressed in previous comments. But you're too illiterate to read.
You just don't fucking know what "drain" means.
You assume drain must mean drain completely to 0 so Russia completely starves.
The first package was already draining, the next were draining more. Already explained to you by others at the very beginning of the thread, and by me multiple times. That's how sanctions work.
You certainly think so, yes, that is very obvious. That is your biggest problem really.
Okay, I didn’t want to ask anymore questions because I’m trying to to be nice.
But…
Do you know what an economy is?
And
Do you know what GDP is?
And
Do you know that if the percentage of GDP is above 0% it generally means that an economy is growing?
And
Do you know that draining and growing are opposites?
Some things you don’t think, some you just know.
Ok buddy, you have got the spirit, but you really need to tackle topics in your wheelhouse.
The percentage of GDP being above 0% is meaningless. >0% of what?
If the GDP growth rate is >0 then the economy is growing. That would be the amount of additional GDP in relation to existing GDP over a given timeframe or (ΔGDP/GDP)/Δt, usually over one year (Δt = 1 annum) or annualized for ease of comparison. Usually expressed as (ΔGDP/GDP)*100% where the Δt is implied.
here is a more in depth explatation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth
Once you've digested that, look at Stimulus and Quantitative Easing
That will explain where the $300 billion of the NWF that weren't frozen disappeared to. And why the Russian banks now experience such a dire liquidity crisis.
And once you understand all of that you can put 2 and 2 together, and understand WHY the Russian economy had such low growth rates despite such a gargantuan stimulus effort.
There is a massive hole in the economy, through which an enormous amount of money has been draining, which is the aforementioned sanctions. And Russia had to pump almost the entirety of their remaining NWF into the economy and also do an enormous amount of QE to keep the economy at a slightly elevated growth rate. Although since late last year that's no longer working and the economy has been in a recession.
And we've come full circle. (Or rather we will have come full circle once you've done your required reading to understand the subject matter)
LOL a lot of words to tell me that I am right.
Nice copy pasting from ChatGPT too.
You still can’t admit it huh? Stupidity and pride are a hell of a combination.
From the US government
From the ESCP geopolitics institute
And you still claim I don’t understand the topic…
So it was growth. Thank you. You could have been a lot shorter with that.
Full circle indeed. We’ve once again arrived at the point where it is completely obvious to anyone that I’m completely right, but you’re too obtuse to admit it. This entire discussion could have been avoided if you would just have reacted like a normal person who gets shown they’re wrong about something.
If I you claim I don’t understand it, and I’m schooling you, where does that leave you?
So you didn't read, nor understand. Which shouldn't be surprising given that having basic understanding of simple math can only mean copying from an LLM to you. You too can learn what the scary triangles mean, it's not that difficult.
Why did the $300 billion from the NWF plus whatever hundreds of billions of QE drain out of the economy?
You keep ignoring that part for some odd reason.
I read, but the only thing I don’t understand is your stupidity and stubbornness.
And sure, they used up their NWF. War is expensive. Who would have thought? Does that prove anything about sanctions?
And a 300B+ (rubles not USD) expense is not the same as an economy being ruined. Especially when the GDP of that country is about 200 trillion rubles. And you’re trying to tell me I don’t understand how this works? Riiiiiight…
And talk about ignoring:
From the US government
From the ESCP geopolitics institute
Why are you ignoring this?
Edit to your edit: yes the “triangle” –which is actually not a triangle but a Greek capital letter delta, the more you know– symbol gave you away. A human commenting online would just spell out delta. So did the language that is completely different to your other comments.
Yes, because war spending is still spending, and acts as a stimulus, increasing GDP. The amount of increased spending accounts for a bigger share of GDP than their GDP growth figures account for, so without this extra spending their GDP growth would be negative, due to sanctions.
You're right, I had my numbers mixed up. The NWF spending accounted only for $70B (5.3T Rubles)
It's the gutting of the liquidity of Russia's banks that accounted for the majority of the stimulus and was even higher than the $300B that I remembered, at $446B (36.6T Rubles) by early 2025 https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt-full-report
This plus the NWF spending accounts for 20% of GDP, or roughly 5% per year over 4 years. Russia's growth numbers were significantly lower than that at between -2.1% and + 4.3%. So on average, without the stimulus spending not a single year since the beginning of the war would have been positive economic growth.
Admit you don't know calculus without telling me you don't know calculus. You write the letter, you don't spell it out.
And the non-monetary consequences of sanctions, that you also keep ignoring. From your own source:
Which is why the Iskander production figures are fluctuating for example, and are much lower than they would be without sanctions. To come back to your favourite weapon, the ballistic missile.
That’s funny, because:
And I never claimed the sanctions were having no effect at all. So another bad faith argument by you. So let’s stick to the discussion. The thing we are discussing is:
My claim, (in other words) that:
But that (and again, I quote, not my exact words, but VERY similar):
So that now (this is a self-quote):
So you don’t have to try to make a case against something I never claimed, which is that the sanctions are not having any effect at all on the Russian economy. They are and I never claimed the contrary.
They just weren’t draining the economy in 2022, like Von der Leyen (and many others) claimed. For this I have provided ample evidence, against your: “nah uh!” without any evidence to back it up and endless straw man arguments.
Yeah in a work document, paper or math assignment. Nobody does in an online discussion with some other guy. Also the entire language was completely different from the rest of your comments. It was clear it was LLM output. Stop embarrassing yourself, triangle boy.
I have not been ignoring it. It’s just that I never claimed anything about it, nor that it is part of a discussion about draining the economy. You’re just making another straw man. This discussion is entirely about the economy draining in 2022, or have you forgotten that in all your wisdom?
Why is it so hard for you to say: “yeah, okay, with all this evidence, I see that you’re right. Von der Leyen and many others have indeed been claiming similar things about the Russian economy since 2022 and they haven’t come true, so let’s indeed wait and see before we believe another such message.” ?
And maybe apologise for acting like a jerk right off the bat too, Mr. “asking questions“.
That would get you way more respect than this mindless rambling, this pathetic whining, this narcissistic behaviour, trying strawman after another that all fail miserably.
Nothing more to say to embarrass yourself? Or simply admit you were wrong?
And you had the audacity to accuse me of arguing in bad faith…
wow, living rent free in your head, eh?
don't worry, I'm just caught up with a thing called "responsibilities"
Come on, do a little better… you were soooo funny! With your little straw man arguments and thinking you actually had a real argument