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This is super interesting to me, beyond the fact that it evidences the strain on Russia and it's quickly approaching financial collapse as a consequence of disastrous war on the strong people of Ukraine. This is because I recognized the potential for the next great gold bull run back in 2017 and started allocating assets. As the 2024 election came into focus, I recognized that unfortunately Trump was likely to win, greatly destabilizing the world, tee up the financial collapse of the U.S., and pour gasoline onto what was already an impressive bull market driven by central bank purchases, and accordingly I put everything I owned into a 2x gold ETF back in June 2024, when gold was $2300 an ounce. Everything has unfolded as anticipated, but prices don't move in a straight line, and early this year, as prices got frothy and topped $5500/oz, there was a big sell off, which is generally to be expected so I just sat tight. Now I know who was selling:
Look at the chart. I further noticed that the price has seemed to make a solid bottom over the last few months at around $4000/oz, paving the way for the next move upward, which in my opinion will be the big move I've been waiting for.
While it may not be readily apparent to everyone, the U.S. is teetering on the brink of insolvency itself, and when it goes, the dollar will go with it and destroy it's status as the world's reserve currency. Bold claim I know, but hear me out. You can run a 2% budget deficit indefinitely when your economy grows by 3% annually. However, under Trump the budget deficit is ~6%, and due to his stupid trade wars and the impact on energy costs from the Iran war and other mismanagement, the U.S. economy is growing only at 2%, and probably shrinking if you take out the spending from the AI bubble. Worse, the U.S. has to roll over a big chunk of it's national debt this year, and has to do so at much higher rates because no sane person or government wants to hold U.S. treasuries. The belligerence of the U.S. on the world stage, the shrinking of trade with the U.S., the inherent vulnerability to asset seizure, etc. makes U.S. treasuries a risky asset, which is reflected in the interest rate. 30 year treasuries have been sitting over 5% for a while now, a rate not held since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. This is not a sign of economic health. Trump also has recently appointed his own, handpicked, fed chair, and has appointed 3 of the 7 fed governors. If one more goes, either by Trump firing them, stochastic terrorism, or other means, he will have cemented control over the fed funds rate, and you can absolutely bet he will juice rates in the short term to provide a boost going into the mid term elections in a desperate bid to maintain control over congress. Even if he doesn't you know he's going to declare a false emergency, put his ICE goons as every polling station with minorities, and arrest people of color to suppress voting. This in and of itself will cause more to flee U.S. bonds and necessitate money printing to try to keep the U.S. afloat. As a consequence, we will see a massive gold spike as the "exorbitant privilege" of the U.S. financial empire crumbles.
I think the largest moving etf associated with gold was Jnug with a 3 year return at around 54%. If you're okay with yoloing your entire portfolio into a volatile etf you could have put in the shipping etf Bwet and gotten a 97% return.
Gold ETF are crazy when it comes to volatility, JNug went from a market cap of $356 per share to $121 a share in the last 6 months......
This is the part of your plan that makes zero sense....... Yes, market instability usually increases the price of physical gold. However people who believe in gold as a currency alternative typically buy actual gold, not an ETF. If the dollar crashes how are you going to turn your ETF into liquidity?
Ignoring the dozens of inherent flaws in gold as a currency alternative, how does your investment even protect you from the crisis you predict?
UGL still up over 100% since June 2024.
I'm not betting on gold as a currency alternative. It's a pure speculative play. Central banks are buying gold to underpin their own currencies, and speculators will pile in when things come unglued. The dollar "crash" will effectively be runaway inflation. It will not instantly go to zero. There will be a point in time where I will liquidate and briefly go to cash, and then immediately roll over into another asset. My thinking at this point is potentially oil, as it is in high demand when there is war, and from my perspective we're teeing up WWIII right now. I'll make my decision when the time draws near. My expectation is that the shit will hit the fan within a year though. We'll see.
The 3-year annualized trailing return for the ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) is approximately 42.67% to 44.73%. That was the metric I was using for the other etf. Just picking an arbitrary date to figure growth isn't very helpful, for example I could pick 6 months ago and they would be down by 44%.
Eh... Central banks on emerging economies are the primary buyers, advanced economies have been selling or holding what they have. This is because gold acts as a hedge against global inflation, not necessarily that they are trying to stabilize their own currency.
That's a pretty big gamble....... It's not like people know when the rug pull is going to happen.
See.... This is where it feels like you don't understand what you are talking about. If we have run off inflation it just doesn't stick to currency, it's going to affect the market as well. Meaning unless your plan is to physically buy barrels of oil your share in whatever oil company will devalue or collapse. You will see the share price skyrocket in nominal terms, but the actual value when adjusted to buying power will nosedive.
Also, oil may not be the best route if you really think there's going to be ww3. Production increased greatly during ww2 but the share price of oil companies like standard oil did not skyrocket like munnition manufacturing companies because the US government enacted price controls. In this day and age there could also be efforts to nationalize oil production all together.
Based on what? The only country that could potentially go to war against NATO would be China, and they aren't exactly the most aggressive warlike country in the world. Not to mention that China going to war with the US would be economic suicide, especially since things are still shaky after COVID. I guess the US could have been the agressor in this scenario if they hadn't just blew through all their munnitions on Iran. It's going to take at least a couple years of rapid production until they feel confident to go on the offensive with a peer adversary.
I mean it's not my money, but I think you would actually be significantly better off just buying gold from the pawnshop if you really believe in your theory. That wouldn't be my suggestion, but it's better than holding onto a leveraged etf.
Btw leveraged etf are meant to be utilize by day traders, not people holding onto stock for more than a day or two. They multiply their daily returns by rebalancing their exposure targets at the end of every day, using futures and swap agreements to meet their quota. Meaning even if the overall value of gold rises, choppy or sideways movements in the market can still tank your stock. Basically for them to meet their x2 daily multiplier both the value of gold and the overall stock market have to increase, because a lot of the growth is made on future contracts for other stocks.