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Pacing the Frontier: A statement from 1,132 employees of frontier AI companies
(www.pacingthefrontier.com)
this post was submitted on 28 Jul 2026
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This all presupposes that this “arms race” is going somewhere. Far as I can tell, trillions of dollars will be incinerated making a better word-guesser while claiming it will lead to some nebulous “AGI”.
You’re both right and wrong. There is an arms race with AI and it is going somewhere. The problem is that its destination isn’t so obvious to Americans, because the US is already loosing. The US is looking toward a model for AI that isn’t sustainable, cheap subscriptions to the highest possible tier models. China is looking toward a model of deep integration. Chinese AI is helping robots balance, drone swarms coordinate, it’s helping factories go dark… They’re even open sourcing some of the best models available (e.g., Kimi 3). In the US, you have companies hoping they can somehow ban competing Chinese models.
How much more effective have the large models become for you over the last three years? Do you think development might come to a halt in China, for example, if US providers were indeed to stop developing or releasing them?
I think they’ve hit the point of diminishing returns and want to frame it as “we’d better stop before we all die”. That is, incremental improvement is all they’re getting from throwing exponentially increasing compute at these things.
So have they been getting better and better?
Yes, but less and less every time. Hence, point of diminishing returns. No amount of space data centers will fix that.
Interestingly, China doesn’t need this computing power, yet Kimi has now unveiled a competitive model all the same. I wonder how this will pan out?