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Musk Secretly Used Starlink to Foil Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Ships
(www.thedailybeast.com)
this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2023
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But surely you'd then need to have prior knowledge of the intent of the endpoint
Not really. You just have to know that the comms are going to or coming from a drone, which should be easy enough given that the AP needs to know how to route the comms so that information must be visible to it (and it can therefore decide to drop comms at that step in transport). Even with the content, origination and destination being perfectly secret you can do this like track which APs a given client connects to over a certain amount of time and infer airspeed and rough direction. Something flying at $droneTopSpeed +/- 10%, headed roughly toward some juicy target? Drop comms.
Remember that starlink is already in their communication chain and start thinking in terms of what you'd do if you wanted to intercept letters between two people and you're already the mailman for one of them.