Zelenskyy says Putin may mobilize ‘hundreds of thousands’ after Russia’s elections (tvpworld.com)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

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Something doesn't smell right about this alleged post-election mobilitzation in Russia.

It's Russia. The election's "results' have as much impact to Putin's crime syndicate as shooting rubber bands at the stars. Why would they bother to wait for a false mandate in an election that doesn't matter?
They need the troops now. Mobilization that doesn't start until October means those currently-civilian conscripts will not even start reaching the front lines for somewhere between 8 weeks and 6 months.
The Russian war strategy has 3 aspects:

Small infiltration teams pushed into soft areas to probe defenses and hope Ukraine leaves. This uses men as worthless meat.
Standoff missile and glide bomb terror attacks to soften Ukrainian defenses and destroy society. This uses high cost, high input and hard to replace assets.
Keep doing both until they give you something to make it stop. Then prepare for the next invasion before Ukraine can recover strength.

A mobilization of say 500k civilians won't have a lick of difference to the tech heavy terror bombing campaign. It will only help perpetuate the meat grinder, but with civlians less capable than the current grunts being blasted into pulp in muddy rainwater puddles today.

All this to say - The Mobilization feels like a bit of a bluff. Something to scare Ukraine into concessions.

And even if it's not, it just gives enough meat to keep the currently failing strategy and death machine griding for a few more months.

Annnnd - It presents new and clear danger to the home front.

Doesn't mean the Kremlin isn't going to do it. They are way beyond the point of madness and hubris. But it won't work and it would serve other purposes than simply "winning" the war.

What do you think?

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[-] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Yeah, the third point seems like it holds. This is basically just "kicking the can down the road". Maybe some enormous amount of meat would have won the war for Russia a couple years ago, but it's very late to start seriously conscripting now. Like, how are they going to equip those people? And enforce discipline? The momentum is very much not on Russia's side.

If Zelensky is saying it, I suspect there's at least a grain of truth. Until Putin has announced it, he could always change his mind, and do something more or less dramatic, though.

As for the other two:

It’s Russia. The election’s "results’ have as much impact to Putin’s crime syndicate as shooting rubber bands at the stars. Why would they bother to wait for a false mandate in an election that doesn’t matter?

It's propaganda lending them a sense of legitimacy. Think about it, if the elections didn't matter at all, then why would they run them? Basically, winning an unfair election is worth something.

In Russia, mostly people who are personally on the chopping block if the war fails think digging in even deeper is a good idea. So, they very much need to fabricate a strong case for it, and for their authority to do so.

They need the troops now. Mobilization that doesn’t start until October means those currently-civilian conscripts will not even start reaching the front lines for somewhere between 8 weeks and 6 months.

The front line moves very very slowly in this war. And as long as it's not rolling up on Moscow by then (lol) they can hope to push it back.

What could happen is that their logistics situation gets ever worse, and they start having domestic unrest as a result of all the conscription. That just has to be less scary to Putin and friends than the alternative with no conscripts, though.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 week ago

Exactly. Combat effectiveness matters way more than raw numbers. These reluctant conscripts who've been smart enough to avoid being drawn into the war so far will have less training, less leadership, less protection, less hardware support and less equipment than the batches that came before them. Which all means that they will simply die faster, and with greater public outcry.