Zelenskyy says Putin may mobilize ‘hundreds of thousands’ after Russia’s elections (tvpworld.com)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

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Something doesn't smell right about this alleged post-election mobilitzation in Russia.

It's Russia. The election's "results' have as much impact to Putin's crime syndicate as shooting rubber bands at the stars. Why would they bother to wait for a false mandate in an election that doesn't matter?
They need the troops now. Mobilization that doesn't start until October means those currently-civilian conscripts will not even start reaching the front lines for somewhere between 8 weeks and 6 months.
The Russian war strategy has 3 aspects:

Small infiltration teams pushed into soft areas to probe defenses and hope Ukraine leaves. This uses men as worthless meat.
Standoff missile and glide bomb terror attacks to soften Ukrainian defenses and destroy society. This uses high cost, high input and hard to replace assets.
Keep doing both until they give you something to make it stop. Then prepare for the next invasion before Ukraine can recover strength.

A mobilization of say 500k civilians won't have a lick of difference to the tech heavy terror bombing campaign. It will only help perpetuate the meat grinder, but with civlians less capable than the current grunts being blasted into pulp in muddy rainwater puddles today.

All this to say - The Mobilization feels like a bit of a bluff. Something to scare Ukraine into concessions.

And even if it's not, it just gives enough meat to keep the currently failing strategy and death machine griding for a few more months.

Annnnd - It presents new and clear danger to the home front.

Doesn't mean the Kremlin isn't going to do it. They are way beyond the point of madness and hubris. But it won't work and it would serve other purposes than simply "winning" the war.

What do you think?

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[-] esc@piefed.social 1 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Time is worth more than fake legitimacy

Heavily depends, for m*scovians it isn't. They rarely work by pragmatic reasoning, if they did we wouldn't have had this war at all.

Capability matters as much as raw numbers do. What even is a theory of victory at this point?

Overhelm what little defence still there (yeah there is a projection of power and "we are stronk" vibes but really most critical parts of the frontline aren't in a good position and recieve little attention because everything is gray area and there is no sexy videos to make), regular terror attacks that destroy limited civilian infra that still holds (energy generation suffered a lot in these years and DTEK are miracle workers, but they can't make something from nothing and a lot of civilian economy is dying) so they hope that this winter they succeed and Ukraine capitulates. Also our leadership already is ready to capitulate for a long time, like all those ceasefire agreements that Ze proposes they are in essence capitulation, just not on the terms that r*ssians find agreeable.

Infiltration - understood that it looks like progress in a war where not much else is going well for you. But it’s also not compatible with their war aims.

Infiltration is a single part of the working strategy, it's not just infantry infiltration and that's it. Infantry infiltrates and blocks/kills infantry, then pilots move in, then heavier equipment. It doesn't always work, but it works in general.

I don’t think the average Russian is a mindless tank mine runner.

Nobody cares about what average r*ssian is or isn't. Suicide runners is part of what they do, mines are activated remotely, so a runner have no say in it, lol. Again you are under impression that they prosecute war reasonably and pragmaticly, they aren't.

Obviously my opinions are biased by both hate and limited to bambas point of view.

// Apparently I forgot to send this reply when the thread was relevant. :!