Seven Experts on How Canada Survives Trump’s Trade War | The Walrus (thewalrus.ca)

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The sombre mien—that’s what stayed with me. On Saturday, Mark Carney looked less like a prime minister briefing media on trade negotiations than a wartime leader telling his country a feared turn had finally arrived and preparing them for a long ordeal. The intense, all-out effort to stop crushing new tariffs had failed, with Carney grimly explaining that the United States insists on “short-term transactions” rather than “long-term partnerships” and that its commitments could no longer be assumed to hold.

American demands reportedly went well beyond tariffs, market access, and sectoral protections. They targeted Canada’s freedom to set domestic cultural policy, interpret agreements it had already signed, and conduct trade relations with third countries. The loss of our sovereignty was too high a price for preserving economic integration. What prime minister would accept Canada becoming a vassal state on his watch? With the collapse of talks, and Carney describing the country as being “attacked,” it’s hard not to feel like we have crossed into a different moment—that we are living in a slightly darker reality.

Throughout the weekend, The Walrus spoke to economists, policy experts, and political observers about what exactly has changed and what this new period might demand of Canada.

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[-] ProudCanadianCitizen@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 day ago

Read the agenda. Vance will never let Trump last until 2928. .Vance wants to be POTUS without the need for an election, and he gets his wish it Trump is deposed at the mid-terms. Vance is just giving Trump enough rope to hang himself.

The way Vance is maneuvering, not even the Democrats could blow the chances of the House and Senate going Democrat. This is all about Republican voters making the shift, and they are doing it regardless of what the Democrats do or say. The Republicans want Trump gone more than the Democrats do.

[-] DMCMNFIBFFF@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

As I posted elsewhere:

https://lemmy.ca/comment/25032971

The last time a GOP VP became President was in 1988—38 years ago, and Papa Bush served 2 terms with a popular US president who in his 2nd election won 49 states, 68.8% of the popular vote, and 213 more Electoral College votes than Trump did in his 2nd.

*I should have not posted 68.8% but rather 58.8%.

Presumably both Houses will go Democrat or they won't.

If they do, Vance needs to do little because if Trump's (successfully) impeached, Vance will get his job: though I suppose Vance could also get impeached too, and the (new) House Speaker becomes acting President.

As I think the Democrats won't win both Houses, Trump will putter along. If Vance wants to strike, he will have to do in Trump's 2nd half of the term to be able to be elected twice.

This is possible, but similar happened when Gerald Ford took office from Nixon in 1974, but he lost to Carter 2 years later—and like Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972 won bigger than Trump did in 2024.

	%	Electroral College votes	# of states
Nixon 1972	60.7%	520	49
Reagan 1984	58.8%	525	49
Trump 2024	49.8%[2]	312	31 + ME-02

and when Nixon won in November 1972, he wasn't even 60 years old (unlike Kamala Harris who was 60 in November 2024).

Btw, how will this coup happen?

Will Vance assassinate Trump?

Invoke the wp:Twenty-fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution?

The wp:Second cabinet of Donald Trump seems to have 16 members. How many of them would rather have Trump finish to 2028 than Vance? Either way, they won't be secretaries for long, but at least they might get more of their agendas more completed by 2028 with Trump than with Vance—Trump being the devil they know (or at least know more).

and, boy, what a ruckus will that turn into.

Could we have MAGAts field 3rd party candidates in 2028? Maybe some former Cabinet Secretary who stayed loyal to Trump? Maybe a Hegseth, Rubio, RFK Jr, even Bessent?

[-] ProudCanadianCitizen@lemmy.ca 2 points 19 hours ago

Through a 'forced resignation' - making Trump an offer he can not refuse. Resign or be impeached. Vance only needs a few Republicans to turn, as it is a certainty that every Democrat would vote for his impeachment. All Vance needs to do is to convince the Democrats that it was their idea. The 'treason' angle is still very much able to return front-and-center. I am sure Vance has had the time to dig up the really incriminating stuff. Really juicy stuff like a scandal of Trump Corp. making huge inside gains based on intel Kushner fed Trump Corp operatives - take down both Trump AND Kushner. Doesn't have to be the truth - doesn't even have to be believable. With an approval rating in the 30's, no one will want to go down with a sinking ship. Vance has to act before Rubio gets a toe-hold. But Vance needs at least a year as POTUS in order for him to get entrenched. As a narcissist, Vance out-Trumps Trump.

Incidentally, it is obvious that whatever occurred in the past will have absolutely no predictive vale today. America is in a free-for-all spiral down with nothing but knee-jerk reactions, and a clear-headed Vance to steer his way through the morass.

[-] DMCMNFIBFFF@lemmy.ca 1 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

15 hours ago.

Impeachment and invoking the 25th are 2 different things.

Unless both Houses go Democrat (and the few Republican dissenters who support the Democrats outnumber Democrats who dissent or abstain), there will be no impeachment.

less than 2 Houses = no impeachment, no matter what the sentiments of every Democrat in the 2 Houses are

If the Democrats gain both Houses they could impeach Trump, and IIUC, Vamce too, and in the process make the House Speaker acting President.

This was kind of the situation in 2019 and 2020. IIUC, if Trump and Pence were removed from office by death, impeachment, or resignation, Nancy Pelosi would have become the acting US President.

wp:List of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives elections#January 2019

Today, if Mike Johnson could rally support from even 10% of GOPers in either House, he could probably have both Trump and Vance removed.

wp:List of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives electionsOctober 2023

that might be more tempting for Congressional Republicans—not Vance replacing Trump, but Johnson getting rid of both of them, becoming acting President, getting rid of Hegseth and other anchors—or demoting them—and replacing them with more Reps and Senators.

So until November, to threaten Trump with impeachment is to blow smoke, as those who want to make such threats have less than 70 days from now until the mid-terms.

Again, after mid-terms, if both Houses go Democrat, there is a good chance that Trump, and perhaps Vance, will be impeached and in 2027 we might have a Democrat as acting President, who could use that position in the 2028 primaries to get nominated, and be elected President in 2028, and since we Americans and Canadians tend to love our incumbents, again in 2032.

In that, Vance would be as much out of the picture as Trump—probably more so. Who here remembers Spiro Agnew, Alexander Haig, Dan Quayle, or Pat Buchanan?

If the Democrats win < 2 Houses, it's the same old same old. Republican Congressmen (and they're mostly men) and Cabinet secretaries get another 2 years—or in some cases 6 years—to fuck around, as will Trump and Vance.

Vance only needs a few Republicans to turn, as it is a certainty that every Democrat would vote for his impeachment.

What will Vance offer these Republicans, particularly after 70 days from now? He has no power other than what the President gives him, and has few, if any, significant supporters that don't also support Trump or the GOP.

Do you think that Peter Thiel will support Vance trying to become President? Again, what will Thiel get from Vance that he's not already getting from Trump, Johnson, McConnell, or for that matter, wp:Darline Graham (Lindsey's sister).

Also, what if Trump right now accused Vance of perfidy, banned him from the White House, ordered all federal buildings to ban his entry, banned his secretaries from communicating with him, and requested that Congress impeach him so he could have another—say Rubio, DeSantis, MTG, Jeb Bush, Johnson, or even Bernie Sanders as VP?

All Vance needs to do is to convince the Democrats that it was their idea.

If the Democrats could impeach, they would have already. They tried to in the relatively recent past.

The ‘treason’ angle is still very much able to return front-and-center. I am sure Vance has had the time to dig up the really incriminating stuff. Really juicy stuff like a scandal of Trump Corp. making huge inside gains based on intel Kushner fed Trump Corp operatives - take down both Trump AND Kushner.

As if Vance doesn't have any skeletons in his closet. Trump supporters don't care, and most Trump-haters wouldn't support any GOPer, including Vance.

Doesn’t have to be the truth - doesn’t even have to be believable.

People have flung many accusations at Trump that didn't stick that much because the proof, while somewhat existent, wasn't overwhelming.

Did Trump rape women? Where are the videos, the police reports and DNA taken soon after the alleged rapes, and the proof of no malice (or just malice) or of no political (or just political) interests of the informants?

Did he attempt a coup in January 2021? He said some things—Trump says a lot of things—he even praised Hillary Clinton once or maybe twice (or maybe more), and some of the demonstrators got carried away—like some BLM protesters did in their riots.

There was no coup attempt. The leftist corporate fake news just wants to create trouble for him.

Jeffery Epstein? He never really knew the guy. The issue is waning.

See how easy that was?

Now imagine Fox and others exposing accusations by Vance as fake.

I could see it now: a sign that says "Hang J.D. Vance!"

With an approval rating in the 30’s, no one will want to go down with a sinking ship.

It's a dip. All US Presidents have their dips.

Besides, many people who are polled are too lazy to vote, and there is voter suppression.

Two years from now, maybe 5% of all GOP Congressmen will be dead, about 1/3rd of GOP senators will have 4 years to go, and all will have had (≤) 24 months to prepare explanations and/or act in Congress in ways to retain voter support, even if it means getting more bold with Trump.

They can work it out.

Vance has to act before Rubio gets a toe-hold.

So Vance is going to fight Rubio? They aren't going to work together in overthrowing Trump?

But Vance needs at least a year as POTUS in order for him to get entrenched.

He's got fewer than 70 days. After that, where Trump goes, so does Vance (i.e. again, if Trump is impeachable, so will be Vance).

As a narcissist, Vance out-Trumps Trump.

Which makes him more vulnerable.

If Trump was to trash-talk Vance—as he did Chris Christie, but only worse, maybe far worse as Trump might see Vance as more a threat than Christie—what would Vance do but grin and bear it, while the other secretaries fake laugh (maybe genuinely laugh) at Trump's jokes and add to the ridicule in the media?

What if Trump publicly walked over and stabbed Vance in the gut?

"That's what I do to traitors!"

Maybe Vance would be the one arrested, interrogated, and maybe charged.

Incidentally, it is obvious that whatever occurred in the past will have absolutely no predictive vale today.

wp:Finis L. Bates#Ford v. The Chicago Daily Tribune

In May 1916, the Chicago Daily Tribune published an interview between journalist Charles Newton Wheeler and Henry Ford which contained Ford's now-famous statement:

History is more or less bunk. It's tradition. We don't want tradition. We want to live in the present and the only history that is worth a tinker's dam is the history we make today ...[28]

May 1916 was 110 years and 3 months ago.

FWIW, 11 months later, the US entered WWI.

America is in a free-for-all spiral down with nothing but knee-jerk reactions,

That looks like something Hasan Piker or Vaush would say.

and a clear-headed Vance to steer his way through the morass.

More clear-headed than Rubio or Bessant?

My predictions?

.1. If Vance tries to get Trump to resign or be removed by impeachment and/or the 25th, Vance will be sidelined by history.

.2. If Vance grins and bears it, tries no coup, and indeed helps to protect the President to the very end, it might have one of 3 results:

.a. Trump dies and Vance becomes VP, and with it becomes the candidate with the best chance of winning in the 2028 GOP primaries.

.b. Trump lives, but becomes a vegetable. If that happens, Vance and the Cabinet run things together, and Vance still has the best chance for the 2028 nomination.

In either case, the Democrats will have their primaries in 2028. If history is a guide, progressives will be sidelined, but supporters of the progressives will rally around the lesser evil, perhaps he being Gavin Newsom.

Gavin Newsom versus J.D. Vance.

I think Newsom will win, but not win 5% more than J.D. Vance.

I doubt that either MTG or Tucker Carlson will run as independents.

some predictions I made in 17 October 2020:

Fiction and Fictional Settings Wiki:Miraheze:User:DMBFFF/Some predictions for some of the 2020 elections

This posted 15:59 UTC (11:59 EDT), Friday, 28 August 2026.