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this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2026
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If you assume the market halved, absolute illegal trade still went up 4x
And if less than half as many people are smoking, that's still a win in my book.
Sure just ignore the drive by shootings and burning buildings on your way down the street
If the market continues to trend downwards then illegal trade will fall as well until it's below pre-excise levels.
If the market plateaus with the illegal market still above pre-excise levels then I'd agree they should remove the excise and call the policy a failure... Well, maybe, you might be able to argue some marginal increase is worth a massive decrease in smoking, not 4x, but maybe 1.1-1.3x.