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this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2026
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That's a very good point. With collective confidence in the reliability of a U.S. nuclear umbrella shaking more than Lizzo in a pickup truck on rough road, an unintended effect of Russian aggression to the Baltics includes the threats to russian shipping. But also - an IMMEDIATE rush of middle powers seeking their own nuke capabilities. Since America is no longer trustworthy, countries like germany, poland, sweden, canada and italy might quickly decide that they need these weapons too.
RE: your point about Sweden and Finland's calculus about when it's right to apply force independent of NATO commitments - I'd throw the eastern vanguard Poland and Romania into that camp as well. You're right, if Russian aggression seems inevitable, then it's preferable to fight them in someone else's back yard before it reaches your own. I think it's highly likely that all of these eastern NATO countries start to consider lending their air assets to a no-fly zone over Ukraine, for example. And maybe sink a few ships of the Baltic fleet to let Russia know that they aren't going to wait for Russia to choose when the Northern Front of this war begins.