What Trump responds to is very telling. He has less curiosity about the world than a geriatric house cat but then suddenly comes out with strong, focused opinions that he acts like the thing he's brought up is revalatory and was previously unknowable. Healthcare was difficult - who knew? Can you inject sunlight and bleach into the body to kill covid? Why not? Why can't we just nuke a hurricance? Suddenly, Ukraine - who had no cards this time last year - is impacting the global diesel market. This is one of those "no shit, sherlock" perk ups.
Here's the well-traveled MO: He only chases things he's personally motivated in, and is given brief, simple instructions on what to care about today from his handlers. And then he just wings it lazily trying to ham-fistedly extort somebody somewhere to do the work for him. Or to be the scapegoat to take blame for whatever he's mad at today. Why did he bring this up today? Because someone told him to. Why and who is the important thing to know. And if whoever asked him to say this could do ANYTHING to stop it, they wouldn't be asking him to impotently plead for relief.
Yes, Donald. Ukraine has attacked Russia's oil & gas capacity. They said they were going to, and they have been for a year now. And it appears to affect you personally, enough to make a statement about it. Maybe that reveals the simple money train from Russian gas to your pocket. You tried to strong arm Ukraine, you cut support, you tried to create global instability by wrecking economies and threatening to invade your allies - but it hasn't helped to restore the money train from Russia to your syndicate. This isn't 4D chess. It isn't even checkers. He tried last week to assign all blame to high diesel prices on zelensky, and surely none to his moronic boogaloo in Iran. What good is that? Only his audience of smooth brain racist goblins is even pretending to listen to him anymore, and what would you like them to do about Ukraine attacking Russian diesel production?
And you should have known this all, dummy. This was very knowable for anyone paying close attention. What feels a bit odd is that this lacks his usual sptittle-flinging bluster and threats against Zelensky. This relative restraint very much smells like desperation. The meekness is what's notable.
Debating his conduct is pointless. He always tries to use leverage he doesn't actually have to push people around. But that's probably not the story here. The story is that he, and Putin, are very, very, very desperately weak right now. Trump wants the money train to resume. He has nothing left to try and blackmail Ukraine into a bad peace. Putin is trying to find a way to stay alive during a failing war that he caused that hasn't given him anywhere near the kind of return that he can call any kind of worthwhile victory.
The point? Ukraine is doing EXACTLY what they should. As expected, they are bringing their Pelican domestic ballsitic missile program online, and Russia probably has no effective defense against it.
They're squealing like stuck pigs. Russia ONLY responds to pain. This is how Ukraine gets them to stop.
Well, they already emphasize on their TV that they are standing against the NATO.
Let me tell you the scenario we must be prepared for:
During contested 2028-2029 US election period, making use of the US internal polarization and strife, and the rise of right parties in Europe, China launches an attack on Taiwan, North Korea on South Korea, Iran and Houthis with Hamas on Arab States and Israel, and Moscovia launches an attack on Baltic States - all perfectly coordinated and simultaneous.
If you study the history of WWII, you discover how alliances slowly crystallized and radicalised. First there were proxy wars, like those in Spain or Manchuria, until finally the superpowers, first rather unwillingly, went into full action.
I'm afraid that is how history works, and the coordinated clash of superpowers themselves, namely of the US and China with their alliances, appears extremely likely, even though people try to avoid it.
The brutal natural selection happens on this grand scale as well, whether we like it or not.
I think you're exactly right, mate. The 20th centry "eastern world" never went away. The USSR-China axis STILL considers itself entitled to taking more than they currently have, if for no other reason than the glory of Dear Leader, and for proof that their societies are superior to the decadent west. These last holdout ghouls leading Cold War superpower alumni don't think like we do, and they want to preserve their privileged way of life.
The kink in the hose for your timeline is I don't think Russia can conitnue to bleed at this rate until a coordinated 2028-29 period and still retain significant offensive potential suitable for conquering enough land to make the entire thing worthwhile.
American, Germany and French presidencies are very important to watch in the next couple of years. Trump is in his final act, but whatever comes after Macron and Merz is unlikely to have the same steadfast support for Ukraine.
2028 is precisely the year when Moscovia will be cornered, since it still has big enough oil and gas profits: https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ukraine-spy-chief-russia-putin-war-gjk6w0h86 https://substack.com/@praxisuk
Instead of conquering territories, it would be desperate simply to break the NATO, and a hybrid "rebellion", say, in Narva, would be a perfect complement to the forthcoming Chinese attack on Taiwan, exactly at a time when the US and EU will be weaker.