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I'll be frank: I don't think Paxton winning over Talarico will tell the DNC a single thing with respect to trans rights.
Whereas if Talarico wins, what is preventing him from changing his views in any way, at any point within the next 6 years? A Dem President in 2028, with the support of Congress including Talarico, can codify better protections for all humans, in all states despite any state like Texas' objections. Paxton as Senator would be an active obstacle to that type of effort.
Yeah. We know how the Senate works. The problem is that the party is choosing strategies to win elections and those strategies include things like supporting genocide, scapegoating vulnerable people, condemning communism, expanding the military and the police, honoring ICE agents, destroying RCV campaigns, and punching left. For every win they get with these strategies, they will use the victories to claim that this is the way the party must go. For every loss using these strategies, they will attack the voters and say it's the voters' fault for not voting properly. They will then pay social media influencers to claim that the party never actually cared about people who didn't vote for them, despite the hundreds of millions of dollars spent over the last several decades on "get out the vote campaigns".
What expect is that if Paxton is willing to sacrifice his principles on the campaign trail, then he's likely to sacrifice his principles once in the Senate and will vote with his Republican colleagues, because that's the evidence he's providing us. We don't want another Manchin.
Why would you imagine Talarico moving to the left on trans issues, instead of further to the right? He's already proven he's willing to move to the right.
I could imagine both scenarios where he moves left or right after the election my comment didn't necessarily rule one out. Why are you only imagining Talarico moving to the right? And even if he does move rightward, the makeup of the Senate will still be more pro-trans than without him.