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Anthropic IPO filing: the disaster in numbers
(pivot-to-ai.com)
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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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AI has been bobbing in and out of winters for 50 years. The big difference this time is that the winter will be taking the global economy with it.
It hasn't though. The term has been used forever, but LLMs are less than 10 years old. This is new territory.
I genuinely don't understand what you're trying to say. This is a well-documented phenomenon over the last 50 years.
As I said in the post that you categorically dismissed, the only thing that's different this time is the stakes will kill the economy rather than AI research.
I understand that you probably think I'm only referencing the "hype cycle", and that's a fair interpretation.
LLMs are significantly different from earlier versions of "AI" (non-consistent naming) throughout the period. These are not expert systems. These are a new beast which effectively did not exist before 2017. The only reason why LLMs are included in the group is arbitrary naming.
I question the utility of folding them into the same hype cycle considering they have also already had more impact than any of the other cycles. This is new territory, and such arguments only take yet more attention away from the massive issue affecting the world at the moment. I would argue that you would be hard pressed to find another example of this amount of disruption.
That said, I do not at all disagree with this:
So I'm happy to just agree on that. Enemy of my enemy is my friend kind of thing.
No hate at all. Hope you don't take it that way. I simply think that framing the discussion as "AI" (loosely defined as multiple technologies arbitrarily named AI) takes away from the clear and current issues around LLMs, especially if the argument is ultimately "just wait, we're in a cycle".
This affects my life in a deep way right now. I couldn't care less about a cycle, in any event. (And that's on me, 100%.)
I think past AI winters is a somewhat useful analogy, but yeah, I agree, drawing too strong a comparison is misleading.
Likewise for people comparing the AI boom to the dotcom boom and bust. Ed Zitron has ripped into this comparison repeatedly. Basically, the fiberoptics laid by the dotcom boom where useful for decades, whereas heavily used GPUs fail in ~6 years.
my sense is that AI winter as a term is mainly useful for thinking about, like, academic funding and really basic levels of breathless press coverage and rhetoric. so like after this all blows up maybe people chugging along researching symbolic AI will be in something they could meaningfully call an AI winter again, and it was useful in terms of comparatively analyzing the news rhetoric around this stuff from a couple of years ago, at least before the ascension of madness of doomer-pilled silicon valley rhetoric.
but in terms of raw finances LLMs have occasioned a world-historically overleveraged global economy in a way that so far exceeds "hmm i guess we're not getting grants like we used to" that for all practical purposes we're in an entirely new domain. like instead of a balmy ai summer we've found ourselves on the surface of venus
i’m fucking praying so hard this is the case
i’d rather focus on crushing fascism instead of terminators
So you’re saying this time it’s different?
I'm saying this time it's different, because it is far, far worse.