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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2026
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I'm not sure. The price of oil is the price of oil...except that Canada sells its oil to the USA at a discount because where else can we sell it.
The fact that Canada sends almost all of our oil to the USA means that the USA buys less at the normal world price from other sources. This increases supply in the world market. If Canada shifts its sales to the world market, then the USA has to buy more from that world market at the higher price also balancing out the supply/demand on the world market.
Net result would be that the USA will have to pay more for Canadian oil, because why would we sell it to them at a discount if we can sell it on the world market at the full price. This just means that we get more money for the same production.
All that assumes that production stays the same. If that holds true then the net environmental impact is relatively neutral except for the pipeline itself.
If the pipeline allows production to increase, then there's obviously a potential for greater environmental impact, although it's not really clear that greater supply would mean greater demand. But the Canadian oil is dirty to extract no that's bad.
However, any amount of excess pipeline capacity away from the USA is a win for Canada economically and politically, as far as I'm concerned.
If Brent crude drops below $40/barrel, that would probably mean that demand had dropped so much that the days of burning oil are coming to a close. I'm not going to complain about that.
Right, but we could have done that 20 years ago, and we didn't. Why? Because the cost of the infrastructure to do it is more than the discount we are forced to take from the Americans. The question is are we going to be signing up for a permanent national penalty in the form of debt on a bad investment that doesn't pan out long term. And are we doing it for the sake of people who are wishfully thinking a few new pipes will solve all Alberta's problems, but aren't actually going to see any benefits from it, because the profits all end up in American pockets regardless?
The vast majority of Albertans don't even know that the pipeline projects are moving forward. Why? Because it's so far from their daily life it doesn't make an actual difference to their lived experience. It's an Article of Faith that Ontario hates us because oil, and there's literally no policy on earth that's going to change that, because it's not grounded in reality, it's grounded in the Mythological idea of what Alberta is that we were all raised on. It's identity politics. And there's no way to inject a counter narrative because the only sources of media out here are owned by American Hedge Funds with a vested interest in keeping us in a state of perpetual civil unrest.