I think we'll unfortunately see a degradation over time of capable programmers, as it's with most other things: Humans learn poorly from seeing things being done for them, rather than doing it themselves. AI can be a good resource for iteration and a sort of rubber duck, and even for explaining things (with external confirmation). But as it currently stands, people find it much more attractive to just let AI do the work for them. That's the most prominent work culture after all, based on capitalistic values: Economic growth above all.

I see it in schools as well, unfortunately: Students find it much more appealing to get good grades than to actually learn. Not everyone, of course, but still way too many.

And I do understand many of the students: The bar for junior programmers has now increased, as a lot of employers simply think "why hire a human that is on the same level as AI?".