Toronto (Canada) (AFP) – Alberta voters decide next week if they want the oil-rich province to begin the process of separating from Canada, a pivotal test for the country as it confronts a hostile United States.

Polling indicates less than a quarter of Alberta's roughly five million people want independence, but in an interview with AFP on Tuesday, a separatist leader insisted those numbers were off.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we actually win this referendum," said Mitch Sylvestre, who heads the Alberta Prosperity Project, the most prominent separatist organization.

"I would be very surprised if we got less than 40 percent," he said.

Monday's vote is a personal challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Alberta and returned there this week to campaign for national unity.

US-Canada hostility triggered by President Donald Trump has defined Carney's tenure.

Alberta's oil industry is central to his plans for solidifying Canada's economy and reducing US reliance.

Carney has backed a new pipeline and other projects to increase crude production, marking a clear break from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, who was broadly reviled in Alberta over allegations that he stifled oil industry growth in favor of environmental policies.

In a video address on Monday, Canadian Thanksgiving, filmed at his Edmonton high school, Carney highlighted the pipeline as a chance "to create lasting opportunity and prosperity... in this province and across the country."

"We can't achieve any of this if we are divided," he said.

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