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Maybe it's because I'm autistic and think differently, I'm legitimately confused when people take news that they have a good chance of winning as telling them not to vote. If anything, shouldn't it be taken as encouraging you to vote? The opposite is also taken as discouraging people from voting. Are people just that defeatist? You have no chance of winning, you don't bother voting, you have a good chance of winning, you don't bother voting
The goal is to lull people into a false sense of security. Voting isn't necessarily easy for every person legally entitled to vote. You're supposed to get time off of work, sure, but the actual reality of that especially for shift-laborers, or parents with young children who can't stand in line for an hour with them, or people who live in remote locations with few voting places can be quite different.
If they keep hearing that their side is likely to win and it's going to be a pain in the ass for them to actually vote anyway, then they're more likely to skip the hassle thinking they have the victory in the bag.
Additionally, hearing "the opposition is probably going to win" does a lot to mobilize the maga side to get off their asses and vote, even if trumpster's approval rating has dropped to pretty much just dedicated magats.
I'm convinced that 99.95% of the time, polls exist and are publicized primarily to impact the outcome and NOT to provide clear or unbiased information.
But don't people understand that the victory being promised is contigent on them voting? I was motivated to vote liberal precisely because I was told they could win, otherwise I would have voted NDP feeling like it was in vain because conservatives were surely going to win
People were googling "can I change my vote" enough to show up in the data after last election. The average person is stupid as fuck.