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What software does not exist but you wish it did?
(lemmy.dbzer0.com)
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this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2026
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A peer-to-peer prediction market where instead of betting on forest fires, we bet on datacenter fires and mansion fires.
Who would bet against those fires in a platformike that?
You'd bet against the fires if you wanted a payoff when the fire doesn't happen. You pay when the fire does happen. So anybody who benefits from the fire world have an incentive to bet against it.
I don't think many people that don't want a fire would use the platform...
Let's say you don't want a fire, like it's your data center. You'll want to get paid if the fire does happen. So you bet on fire, like you're buying insurance against it.
Two interesting differences from existing fire insurance.
That's the real point of this software. It would allow crowdfunded defense against people who are destroying the world and own the legal system. Most participants would just be minimizing costs or gambling, not ideologically motivated.
My point is that people would have an incentive to bet for the fire and then cause the fire, so once a bet is published chances are that the fire will happen.
There would need to be sufficient market depth to pay someone to act. So we couldn't just publish $0.01 bets on everything and watch the town burn. "Coasian" solutions like this are limited by transaction costs.
In practice, the owner of the datacenter would need to either eliminate the externality or watch it burn. If the datacenter is worth more than its external cost, then they can reimburse their victims or pay for cleanup. If the revenue from the datacenter is less than its external costs, then it's a net loss for society and ought to be shut down.
If such a platform existed so many people would bet for "fire" that there wouldn't be depth, but if you take a look around lemmy you can see some people hate AI so much they would do it anyways.
If there's so little depth that they're not getting a significant reward, then that's where we are right now. Looking around you and I see the same thing - a bunch of Lemmings with big words and no action. We have no mechanism of coordination because centralized organizations get censored, like with the Taft-Hartley Act or the CIA abroad.
Yeah, French people, Hungarians, poles, Czechs, east Germans... didn't need fancy machanisms of coordination to take action
Unfortunately I don't think they're coming to save us.
Edit: actually it looks like you might be suggesting something else. Just so I don't accidentally make a strawman, could you elaborate on what you expect individuals in oppressive countries to do?
Organize and overthrow the oppressive government, which nowadays doesn't require guillotines anymore (like France ca. XVIII century), it can be as boring as voting (Hungary 2026). Protest, strike and demand what is fair.
Or at least collectively bargain for better conditions. How do you think people got the 40h work week, 2 days weekend, universal healthcare (not in the US), mandatory paid leaves (not in the US), workers rights (you get the drill...).
The Taft-Hartley Act, and other laws like it, have dramatically weakened American unions far below what's necessary to overthrow anything. If your strike is too successful, then the government will declare a compromise on your behalf and end it.
Joining a union is a good idea, and there's no reason why we can't come up with a clever program to avoid restrictions on unions too. I'm just explaining why Americans have not simply organized.
If just the people who voted democrat (so leaving out disillusioned republicans and those who didn't vote) decided to strike, the government wouldn't be able to force 80 million people to work.
Strikes and protests don't follow the exact letter of the law. I'm not saying to riot and burn cities, just show the same interest as when the local sports team wins a competition. You do see hundreds of thousands of people on the streets for that.
I assume you're talking about Lemmings betting against fire because they want data centers to burn.
If there's a lot of people betting, then why wouldn't there be depth?
If the data center is causing measurable harm, then a victim losing the bet against fire is still a net gain. If you're acting rationally, then you can afford to do it repeatedly — like insurance. But if people are just flushing their money down the toilet because they hate something and gain nothing from its loss, then they'll go broke.
No, betting for the fire and causing it themselves.